Transcript

Multiple cause diagram animated tutorial

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The WWP summary suggests many factors or events which might act as starting points for tracing paths of causality and consequence. Examples include the spread of invasive species to South Africa, water conflicts, ecosystem degeneration, and post-apartheid policy on natural resources. You can probably think of others. Each example would provide a very rich and interesting source for exploration, but I’d need more information in order to generate meaningful multiple cause diagrams.

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You also need to be cautious in assigning factors as being causal rather than simply influential. Claims of causality often require more information or evidence. This is why influence diagramming is often considered as providing ‘safer ground’ for mapping. In developing the multiple cause diagram we’ll explore the causes and consequences associated with the implementation of the WWP.

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The first task is to identify the immediate causes for the implementation of the programme. These appear to relate to economic, social, political and ecological drivers associated with post-apartheid South Africa .

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It’s then possible to trace back further causal factors associated with each of the immediate causes. The spread of invasive species seems to be particularly important and so I’ve encircled it. Another key factor for the WWP is the availability of government resources to support the programme.

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After tracing the direct and indirect lines of causality, it’s then possible to begin identifying the immediate and less immediate consequences of the programme. Job creation, as well as environmental protection, are perhaps the most important consequences for the programme.

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Next it’s possible to explore how some of the variables affect each other to generate feedback loops. There are two types of these. Firstly, reinforcing feedback loops where variable change triggers a cycle of reinforcing change. For example, ‘implementation of WWP’ leads to ‘improved biodiversity…’ which leads to ‘availability of government resources’ which again leads to further implementation of WWP.

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A second type of feedback loop is where change in one variable in the loop leads to an opposite change in the next variable. The resultant ‘loop’ signals an opposing change. These loops consist of arrows that might require labelling. For example, the rising costs of implementing WWP may inhibit further investment. Other oppositional changes and loops might be identified by adding the verb ‘reduces’ on a causal link.

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On a multiple cause diagram, it’s the loops that provide important clues as to where intervention might be appropriate. For example, the loop from WWP to ‘revenue from…’ to ‘development of rural economy’ to ‘availability…’ back to WWP suggests that strategies to increase revenue from clearance products might be a useful point of intervention.

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I went through a number of versions and lots of scrap paper before achieving my final diagram. One of my earlier sketches is shown here. There are a number of difficulties with this version. First, there are lines crossing, which make it difficult to read.

I then had to try and arrange the elements of the diagram to avoid any possible confusion.

The diagram is also too congested with too many variables. One way to deal with this is to identify variables that might be of a similar type and to cluster them together.

Whilst removing some variables, it also struck me that other important variables were missing.

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In drafting a multiple cause diagram you need to think about presentational issues, such as avoiding crossed lines and having too many variables. You also need to think about substantive issues. Are all the key variables present? Are some variables less important? Check if any variables can be removed.

Are the suggested variables perhaps more of ‘influence’ rather than ‘cause’? Make sure the causal links are clear to you or to others. Looking at the final draft, what questions occur to you about the presentational aspects? How might you present different variables? What about the substantive elements? For example, which feedback loop is particularly important as a possible focus for future intervention to improve the success of WWP?

Summary

1 Identify the event to be explored and write this down on lower half of paper.

2 Note the various direct immediate agencies of change (variables or other ‘events’) that brought about the event using arrows to indicate causal connections.

3 Trace indirect less-immediate agencies of change as sub-causes by continually working backwards from the main event.

4 Similarly, explore any consequences (either intended or unintended) arising from the chosen event and map these out as variables/ events on your diagram.

5 Identify and indicate with arrows whether variables/ events might be causally interconnected. Label any arrows that have an inhibiting or reducing effect.

6 Encircle those variables or events that you feel are particularly significant.

7 Identify any causal loops either inhibiting or reinforcing activities shown on your diagram.