4.2 Changing distribution of tree species within the UK

Models have been made to understand the impact on ecosystems in relation to projected changes that indicate a significant loss of these specific ecosystems.

• tundra by 55%

• tundra/taiga by 85%

• boreal conifers by 46%

• temperate evergreen by 52%.

Looking at the potential changes to UK forest cover, a study by the UK Forestry Commission reports that by 2080:

• Sitka spruce will become more suitable across the cooler uplands of Scotland and northern England, and also the eastern side of Scotland; the Suitable area in parts of lowland England may become Unsuitable; the southwest peninsula and Wales should, at least, remain Suitable.

• Corsican pine will become Very Suitable in eastern Scotland where it is currently Suitable, while growth rates will increase across southern England.

• Douglas fir will remain, at least, Suitable across most of south and east England, and Very Suitable in the West Midlands and much of the southwest and east Wales; the climate is predicted to become more suitable for Douglas fir across the whole of Scotland, but particularly in the east.

• Beech is likely to become Very Suitable across much of eastern Scotland, where it is currently marginally Suitable; in England, the areas where it is currently Suitable and Very Suitable are likely to contract northwards, and in areas of southern England, beech may no longer be Suitable.

So beech trees and beech ecosystems will be lost from southern England as they migrate north.

• A summary of the above report is also available from the Forestry Commission website.

• To learn a little more, the same author has produced a short pdf summary on beech and ash and responses to climate change.