3.4 What is the relationship between affluence and climate change?

Emissions of greenhouse gases are normally reported by sectors for different countries. Researchers at Princeton University have come up with another view, calculating the emissions for every individual for every country in the world. The findings are striking.

The richest 500 million people on the planet (i.e. less than 10%) are responsible for more than 50% of global emissions, while the poorest 3 billion (i.e. just less than 50% of the population) are responsible for practically zero emissions. What's interesting about the analysis is that the findings apply to rich people in both rich and poor countries; similarly, those who bear least responsibility for the problem are the poor in both rich and poor countries.

Part of the rationale behind the work was to try to break the deadlock in negotiations between rich and poor countries – although it raises all sorts of questions about vested interests at the negotiating table. The analysis suggests that affluence is much more important than population as a cause of climate change. The author uses the analysis to support per capita caps on emissions to help solve the problem.

You might not agree with these findings, but one important point to emerge is that the way you look at a problem (e.g. climate change by emissions by country, sector or affluence/individual) will strongly influence the proposed solutions to it.

The Princeton research was presented by Stephen Pacala to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA):

  • a 10 minute podcast and slides (you can listen to the presentation and scroll through the slides at the same time)

  • a transcript of the talk is available

  • the slides.

3.3 What is included in national greenhouse gas accounts and what is excluded?

3.5 What has affluence got to do with the science of climate change?