7 What are the regional effects in different parts of the UK?

7.1 Current estimates (2009)

It's quite hard to answer this question at the time of writing. The best estimates currently available are from UK CIP published in 2002 (the ‘UK CIP 02 projections’). These are now six years old. A new set was published in Summer 2009 (UKCP09) based on the latest science.

When exploring these scenarios it is important to remember that they are just that – scenarios. They are not predictions. There are many possible climate futures, and scientists use models and scenarios to explore these uncertainties. For any given climate future there will also be short-term natural variability. Not all future summers with be hot and dry, nor winters wet and mild – there will always be a range of weather conditions. In 2050, average UK climate will be different from today, but individual winters and summers may be very similar to some summers and winters we experience today. Effective adaptation to a changing climate means taking account of short-term natural variability as well as the longer term climate vector(s).

These web-based resources provide additional information

• The UK CIP overview of the scenarios is on their website.

• The annual report card from the UK Marine CIP gives a succinct picture of the main changes in the marine and coastal areas of the UK.

• The Scotland & Northern Ireland Forum on coastal flooding in Scotland projects net sea level rise, but could be revised upward by new UK climate projections.

• This can be contrasted with current UK Government guidance on expected sea level rise, which still assumes net sea level fall for much of Scotland.