8 Common myths about climate change.

8.1 Can ‘global warming’ lead to regional cooling?

Yes! ‘Global warming’ can be a misleading term. It's accurate when applied to the change in global mean surface temperature – it has been rising for the last 100 years (see Section 2.5 – ‘What is happening to global temperatures?’) and will continue to do so (see Section 5.4 – ‘What is the relationship between emissions now and climate change in the future?’). But global mean surface temperature incorporates a huge variation in temperature (see Section 4.1 – ‘What are the global effects of climate change?’).

Local cooling (e.g. recent trends in parts of central Antarctica) is consistent with climate change models. It's not just the ice that helps to keep Antarctica cold, but ocean currents play a vital role too. Indeed, the isolation of Antarctica over the South Pole 35 million years ago allowed the circum-polar current to become established, and this is thought to have played an important role in keeping Antarctica cold and influencing global climate trends since that time.

In the longer term, weakening of the North Atlantic Drift/Gulf Stream could have a marked cooling effect for northwest Europe, including the UK and Ireland. Warm waters originating in the Gulf of Mexico currently keep the UK climate much milder than comparable coastal latitudes (e.g. Newfoundland, Canada). A large input of freshwater is considered likely to weaken the current, and this would be linked to rates of melting of the Greenland ice cap. This is currently considered to be unlikely before 2100 (see also Section 8.4 – ‘What will The Day After Tomorrow be like?’).

  • RealClimate discusses the merits of the term ‘global warming’.

  • Environment Watch has a brief outline on the main climate impacts across the UK, including discussion on possible cooling effects.

7 What are the regional effects in different parts of the UK?

8.2 What are the upper limits of temperature increase and sea level rise?