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Session 8: Will we engineer the climate?

Completion requirements

Figure 6 is a line graph of global emissions of carbon dioxide in picograms per year on the y or vertical axis (from -1 to +29) against year (from 1980 to 2100) on the x or horizontal axis. Five lines are shown.

The first line plots observed emissions and increases from about 5 to 10 picograms per year in 1980 to about 11 picograms per year in 2014. This end point lies just above the RCP8.5 scenario.

Four lines are used to show forecast data for emissions from 4 RCP multi-model scenarios, from about 2010 with emissions of about 9 picograms per year :

Yellow RCP2.6 – steady decrease of emissions to about -1 picograms per year by 2100 , labelled with a temperature rise of 1.5 °C by 2100 (relative to preindustrial levels)

Green RCP4.5 – steady increase of emissions until about 2040 then a decrease to about 4 picograms per year by 2100, temperature rise of 2.4 °C by 2100

Blue RCP6.0 – steady increase of emissions until about 2080 then a decrease to about 14 picograms per year by 2100 , temperature rise of 3.0 °C by 2100

Orange RCP8.5 – steady increase of emissions to about 29 picograms per year by 2100 , temperature rise of 4.9 °C by 2100

 3.2 Our current path