‘What are influence diagrams?’ animated tutorial

This tutorial contains text, arrows, drawings and circles, also described as blobs. In this description the term “label” refers to text in the diagram, and the term “phrase” refers to text in the audio description or transcript. 

Page	Transcript	Description	
Page 1	Drawing an influence diagram can help you to think about situations where many different bodies, groups and individuals influence each other in various ways, and where perhaps you would like to influence the situation yourself.	The title “What are influence diagrams?” is displayed.	
Page 2	Blobs represent the entities which influence each other, and arrows represent the flows of influence between them.	A number of unlabelled blobs or circles appear over the page. Various arrows appear, pointing between different blobs. Some blobs have more than one arrow coming from or pointing at them.	
Page 3	As with rich pictures, drawing an influence diagram involves a process of discrimination. If you include every influence you can think of, you'll end up with a tangled network of interconnected nodes.

The diagram becomes useful only as you identify the influences which are most significant in relation to your particular interest in the situation.	At the phrase “If you include every influence…”, many more arrows appear linking blobs. 
At the phrase “The diagram becomes useful…” these additional arrows disappear, leaving the previous arrows behind.	
Page 4	The entities exerting or experiencing influence might be individuals or groups - or they could be other things which exert influence in the situation, such as culture, mood, legislation, salary levels and so on.	Labels appear inside the circles. These labels and their directional arrows are detailed below. 
- from “marketing director” arrows point to “finance director” and “marketing decisions”
- from “finance director” arrows point to “marketing director”, “marketing decisions” and “salary levels”
- from “salary levels” an arrow points to “staff retention”
- from “marketing decisions an arrow points to “company profits”
- from “company profits an arrow points to “salary levels”
- from “staff retention” an arrow points to “quality of product”
- from “quality of product” arrows point to “company profits” and “staff morale”
- from “staff morale” arrows point to “quality of product” and “staff retention”
- from “HR team” arrows point to “working conditions” and “promotion opportunities”
- from “promotion opportunities” an arrow points to “staff retention”
- from “legislation” an arrow points to “working conditions”
- from “working conditions” an arrow points to “staff morale”
- from “production managers” arrows point to “quality of product” and “working conditions”	
Page 5	The thickness of the arrow is generally used to indicate different strengths of influence.

You might use colour or line-style to represent specific types of influence, in which case you'd need to provide a key.

Or you might label an influence arrow, if the type of influence is not clear from the context of the diagram.	Various arrows are made thicker:
-	from “marketing director” to “finance director” and “marketing decisions”
-	from “company profits” to “salary levels”
-	from “quality of product” to “company profits”
-	from “staff retention” to “quality of product”
-	from “staff morale to “staff retention”
-	from “working conditions” to “staff morale”
-	from “production managers” to “working conditions”

At the phrase “You might use colour or line-style…”, various arrows turn purple or red, and a key to the colours appears in the top left of the page. The arrows retain their thickness from the previous change. The key shows that purple signifies personal influence and red signifies management interventions. 
The following arrows become purple:
-	from “marketing director” to “finance director”
-	from “finance director” to “marketing director”
The following arrows become red:
-	from “marketing director” to “marketing decisions”
-	from “finance director” to “marketing decisions” and “salary levels”
-	from “HR team” to “promotion opportunities” and “working conditions”
-	from “production managers” to “working conditions” and “quality of product”

At the phrase “Or you might label an influence arrow”, the colours and the key disappear, and the arrow pointing from “marketing director” to “finance director” is labelled “golfing friends”.	
Page 6	As with all systems diagrams, it is the process, more than the product, which is of value. The process of mapping influence flows imposes a discipline on your thinking. This can help you to think more clearly about exactly how influence operates in a situation - and therefore about how you might act in order to most effectively influence the situation yourself.	At the phrase “…how you might act in order to most effectively influence…”, three text labels in red appear around the edge of the diagram: “join golf club??”, “persuade production managers to ease up?” and “warn HR team re risk of legal action?”.	
Page 7	As with other diagram types, influence diagrams are tools for both individual and group thinking. Working on such diagrams in a group can reveal differences in perceptions, which lead to constructive discussions and new understandings. In both individual and group work, standing back and looking at what you have constructed can lead to unexpected insights about how best to take action in a situation.	The three red labels disappear.

At the phrase “…can reveal differences in perceptions…”, various drawings of fingers move around the diagram, following different elements and their relationships with each other. Three fingers follow three different routes around the diagram.

At the phrase “…can lead to unexpected insights”, two red text phrases appear outside the diagram: “focus on morale” and “Strengthen HR team”.	
Page 8	Drawn as part of a systemic analysis, the entities in an influence diagram may be regarded as components of a system of interest. So at some point - either before drawing the influence diagram, or perhaps as you begin to refine it - you will probably find it helpful to use a systems map to define a structure, purpose and boundary to your system of interest.	All parts of the diagram except the blobs or circles and their labels disappear. The title of the page changes to “Systems map of system to improve company profits”.

At the phrase “you will probably find it helpful to use a systems map”, three larger circles appear around and divide the labelled blobs. The first is labelled “financial subsystem” and includes the labels “marketing director”, “finance director”, “salary levels”, “marketing decisions” and “company profits”. The second is labelled “staffing subsystem” and includes the labels “HR team”, “working conditions”, “promotion opportunities”, “staff morale” and “staff retention”. The third is labelled “production subsystem” and includes the labels “production managers” and “quality of product”.
Another, larger circle encloses these three subsystems. Outside this largest circle is a single label: “legislation”.	
Page 9	In fact visually speaking, influence diagrams are just systems maps with added influence arrows. This may not be the most helpful way of regarding them though, because although there is a logical progression from systems map to influence diagram, if your primary interest is to do with influence, you might find yourself plunging straight into an influence diagram, and this focus on influence is likely to govern the way you define and structure the components of your system of interest.	All the previous arrows with different thickness levels reappear. The title changes to “Influence diagram of system to improve company profits”.
At the phrase “plunging straight into an influence diagram…”, the large subsystem circles disappear, and the label “golfing friends” for the arrow from the marketing director to the finance director reappears. The largest circle remains, with all labels inside it except “legislation”.	
Page 10	Thinking about the structure of your system of interest will lead you to think about the components which lie in its environment, and the nature of the influence they exert. In general, components are regarded as part of the environment of a system if they influence it in some way. So drawing an influence arrow from a component in the environment to the system boundary adds no information - to be useful it should show exactly which component within the system is influenced.	Two circled labels appear outside of the largest circle: “opportunities elsewhere” and “rival products”. 
At the phrase “So drawing an influence arrow from a component in the environment”, arrows appear from these two new labels pointing to the outside of the largest circle. 
At the phrase “to be useful it should show exactly which component”, these arrows disappear and are replaced with arrows pointing to labels within the largest circle. From “opportunities elsewhere” an arrow points to “staff retention” and from “rival products” arrows point to “marketing decisions” and “company profits”.	
Page 11	As with a systems map, the diagram represents a snapshot of the situation at a point in time. It doesn’t show how the situation changes over time (and in particular, it is not used to show sequences of events or processes). The components are regarded as part of the structure of the situation, because they change only slowly relative to the time-span of the influences you are interested in.	No change to the diagram.	
Page 12	If you can lay out the diagram to show how the primary influences flow through your system of interest, you can begin to analyse how influence operates in the situation. For example, you might see a chain of strong influences, with just one weak link. Or you might notice a missing link in what would otherwise be a powerful flow of influences. Or you might notice the significance of an otherwise overlooked relationship.	The label “staff retention” moves so that the chain of points from “HR team” to “working conditions” to “staff morale” to “staff retention” to “quality of product” to “company profits” is in line. At the phrase “For example, you might see a chain…”, a finger runs down this chain of influence, then highlights the thin arrow pointing from “HR team” to “working conditions”.
At the phrase “Or you might notice the significance…” a finger highlights the arrow pointing from “marketing decisions” to “company profits”.	
Page 13	Three common mistakes in influence diagrams are using double-headed influence arrows, confusing flows of influence with sequences of events, and confusing flows of influence with flows of materials.	No change to the diagram.	
Page 14	Double-headed influence arrows are used to represent reciprocal influences of the same strength and type. Unless the two entities influence each other in exactly the same way, you should use two separate arrows, one headed each way.	The two arrows pointing to and from “staff morale” and “quality of product” merge to become a single double headed arrow and are highlighted. 
At the phrase “you should use two separate arrows’, the two separate arrows reappear.	
Page 15	Sequences of events and procedures, or flows of materials, do not belong in an influence diagram. In a finished diagram they’re a sign of muddled thinking. Eliminating them from a working diagram is part of what’s helpful about using this diagram type to clarify your thinking.	The title of the page changes to “What are influence diagrams?”.
Three rows of text appear, with arrows linking phrases along the rows.
First row is titled “Flow of influence”. The phrase “programming guidelines” points to “Rupesh” points to “software team”
Second row is titled  “Flow of events”. The phrase “Rupesh studies guidelines” points to “Rupesh runs seminar” points to “team implements guidelines”
Third row is titled “Flow of materials”. The phrase “paper” points to “printed pages” points to “bound pages”.
At the phrase “do not belong in an influence diagram“ a large red cross appears over the second and third rows.	
Page 16	A final important distinction is between influence and causality. The next section covers multiple cause diagrams, and it is essential to distinguish these from influence diagrams. Visually, the diagrams are similar, and are generally distinguished by drawing blobs around the nodes of influence diagrams, but not around those of multiple cause diagrams.

In some cases a systems practitioner will draw an influence diagram before going on to work on a multiple cause diagram, and this is mentioned in the T552 text. However some systems teachers have observed that this is an unhelpful connection to make in the mind of a new practitioner. There is an intuitive connection between the two: 'I want to influence someone because I want to cause something to happen'. But the two are very different: they don’t map onto each other.

Influences are part of the structure of a situation. They exist at a point in time between entities - things. They may possibly lead to change, but they don’t represent that change.

Cause and effect belong to process. They operate over time, and represent the mechanisms by which change takes place. The nodes in a multiple cause diagram represent states and events, rather than things.

Having said that it can, on occasion, be difficult to distinguish between the two. For example, mood, which I mentioned earlier, could be regarded as an entity which influences a situation, or as a state which is caused and which has effects. It might appear in either diagram type. Ultimately what distinguishes your choice of diagram type is the type of situation, and your interest in it. If you’re interested in the direction of political influence, use an influence diagram. If you’re interested in the mechanism by which change occurs, use a multiple cause diagram.	The headings “multiple cause diagrams” and “influence diagrams” appear.

At the phrase “Visually, the diagrams are similar…” the phrase “Blobs” appears underneath “Influence diagrams” and the phrase “No blobs” appears underneath “Multiple cause diagram”.

At the phrase “Influences are part of the structure of a situation ”, under the heading “Influence diagrams” the phrases: “Show structure” “Entities at nodes” and “Influence may lead to change” appear.
At the phrase “Cause and effects belong to process”, under the heading “Multiple cause diagrams” the phrases: “Show process” “States and events at nodes” and “Show the mechanisms of change” appear.