Decision trees and dealing with uncertainty
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Contents

  • Introduction
  • Learning outcomes
  • 1 Dealing with uncertainty: an introduction to probability
  • 2 Check your understanding of probability
  • 3 Expected values
  • 4 Decision trees
    • 4.1 Decision trees and expected value
    • 4.2 A complex decision tree – deciding whether or not to launch a product early
    • 4.3 A complex decision tree – developing a new pharmaceutical drug
  • Conclusion
  • References
  • Acknowledgements

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