Scenarios and 'what if' analysis
In this technique a situation (or scenario) is described from which risks can be recognised. The situation is often prefixed by ‘what if’ and can be very simple (e.g. what if there was a fire here) or highly complex (where multiple what ifs can be developed to explore particular issue) depending upon the needs of the particular organisation. Sometimes this approach is referred to as being ‘devil’s advocate’ and can be used to identify risks with a low probability, usually by prompting or asking for worst case scenarios.
Lets look at an example of how this could work
Pros
- A good approach to understand all root causes and consequences of a risk
- A way to explore risks that can appear to difficult to understand
- A way to understand a chain of events
Cons
- You may become focused on one scenario and therefore miss something key
- To consider all scenarios may take considerable time that may not add value (if there is little that can be done or the scenario is very unlikely)
- Not suited to all risk types, for example strategic risks can arise are difficult to show and other approaches are better suited