6.6 Replacement of fossil fuelled road vehicles

In 2023 road transport, which is almost totally fuelled by fossil petroleum, contributed 16% of global CO₂ emissions (IEA, 2023). In order to cut global CO₂ emissions by a factor of six by 2040, the bulk of the world’s fleet of fossil fuelled road vehicles will need to be replaced with battery electric or hydrogen powered vehicles.

The performance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has advanced significantly with the development and large scale manufacture of light-weight lithium-ion batteries.

Many countries have announced a ban on the sale of new fossil-fuelled cars (from 2030 in the UK) and schemes for promoting sales of electric replacements. Globally the sales of electric vehicles have matched the growth rates of solar power. Electric car sales in 2023 were 3.5 million higher than in 2022, a 35% year-on-year increase. In 2023, there were over 250 000 new registrations per week, which is more than the annual total in 2013, ten years earlier. Electric cars accounted for around 18% of all cars sold in 2023, up from 14% in 2022 and only 2% in 2018 (IEA, 2024).

In the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario, electric car sales need to reach around 65% of total car sales by 2030. To get on track with this scenario, electric car sales must increase by an average of 23% per year from 2024 to 2030.