5.4 Electrification of energy services - a pathway to net zero?

The IEA’s Net Zero scenario shows an enormous ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ towards electricity. Figure 17 shows world electricity generation from 2000 onwards, split by energy source, with projected values as in the IEA’s ‘Net Zero Emissions by 2050’ scenario. The chart indicates how much the rate of electricity generation will need to accelerate to meet the additional demand associated with giving the population of the whole world access to electricity (a United Nations Sustainable Development Goal) and replacing fossil fuels used mainly for heating and transport. It is also clear from this how rapid and significant the growth in solar and wind generation will need to be.

The scenario assumes an almost complete phase-out of fossil-fuelled electricity generation by 2040. This also has the benefit of removing a large source of energy wastage, since coal-fired power stations are typically only 35% efficient and gas-fired power stations about 50% efficient. The world’s electricity demand is mainly to be met by an enormous expansion of solar and wind power. This will require changes in government policy and a surge of financial investment in both energy efficiency (to reduce demand) and clean power generation.