5 Is the oil running out?

Oil is one of a number of fossil fuels - fuels derived from the fossilised remains of living things. The two other most abundant fossil fuels are natural gas and coal.

The supplies of all fossil fuels are finite and (in theory) if we keep using them, they will eventually run out. The imminent exhaustion of oil supplies has been predicted a number of times in the last 100 years. In 1919 the head of the prestigious US Geological Survey predicted that the United States would run out of oil within nine years. Almost 100 years later, oil is still being extracted in the US. Discoveries of new oilfields and more efficient extraction techniques have so far kept the oil flowing, though the quantity of oil produced has declined.

There is no question that at some point the oil will run out, but this is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes or even our children's lifetimes. However, when the oil wells run dry is not the key question - or at least not the one likely to affect our or the next generation. Instead, the key question is whether we can produce enough oil to satisfy global demand. Consider Figure 6, produced in 2003 by members of the campaigning organisation the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. The figure shows an estimate of the global production of oil over a 120-year period.

Figure 6 An estimate of past and future oil production which was produced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in 2003.

Show description|Hide description

A graph with the vertical axis labelled annual crude oil production/billion barrels and running from 0 to 35, in intervals of 5. The horizontal axis runs from1930 to 2050, in intervals of 10 years. The curve runs gently upwards from a value of about 1 billion barrels in 1930 to 3 billion barrels in 1950, then rises more steeply to about 20 million barrels in 1970. After a peak around 1979 at 22 million barrels, the curve falls back to 20 million barrels in 1981 and then resumes its upward trend to reach a rounded peak at about 30 billion barrels around 2010. After that, the curve falls steadily to about 13 billion barrels in 2050.

Figure 6 An estimate of past and future oil production which was produced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in 2003.

Figure 7 Estimated annual energy demands derived from the International Energy Authority (IEA). Mtoe, million tonnes of oil equivalent, is a unit of energy equivalent to the energy released on burning one million tonnes of crude oil.

Show description|Hide description

A graph showing the consumption of various energy resources with respect to time. The vertical axis is in Mtoe (millions of tonnes of oil equivalents) from 0 to 7000 in intervals of 1000. The horizontal axis is labelled over 60 years from 1970 to 2030 in decade intervals. The first curve on the graph represents the increase in oil usage over the 60 year period as it rises from 2500 Mtoe to 5750 Mtoe. The next two curves represent natural gas and coal. These rise less steeply over the 60 year period. Natural gas rises from about 1000 Mtoe to 4000 Mtoe and coal from 1400 Mtoe to 3500 Mtoe. The next curve is energy from other renewable resources which rises slowly from 750 Mtoe to 1800 Mtoe over 60 years. The two final curves show the rise in nuclear and hydro power. These two curves show little increase over the 60 years both starting from about 10 Mtoe increasing to 800 Mtoe for nuclear power and 400 Mtoe fro hydro power. In general the graph predicts that oil and other fossil fuels will still be the major sources for world energy consumption towards the year 2030, with oil being consumed the most.

Figure 7 Estimated annual energy demands derived from the International Energy Authority (IEA). Mtoe, million tonnes of oil equivalent, ...

The idea that we are already at, or about to hit, 'peak oil' is a highly disputed one - and heated arguments have taken place about the validity of the ideas behind Figure 6. The debate can take at least two forms. Put crudely, the first form of the debate is between the geologists and the economists. Geologists point to the declining rate of discovery of new oilfields and the inevitable decline in resources. Economists claim that shortages of oil will raise prices - spurring technological development and the exploitation of sources of oil previously considered uneconomic. A second form of the debate occurs between different geologists - over exactly when the peak in oil production is likely to occur.