6 Demand Analysis: four components of demand
Simple models of demand break down the total demand into four components:
- Long-term growth or decline patterns
Demand is rarely completely stable. We often find that some types of demand are undergoing growth and others have significant declines over time. There can be “life-cycle” models of demand where demand for something grows, stabilises and later falls again.
- Cyclical or seasonal patterns
Most demand is cyclical in some way – going through peaks and troughs – with a variety of causes. We’ll explore this a bit more.
- Random variation
Sometimes things are busier or quieter than we have expected, with no known explanation. This is often seen as random, natural variation.
- Special cause or one-off events
One-off events, planned or unplanned, can cause demand to increase or decrease significantly, usually as a temporary effect.
Activity 6 Patterns of demand
Which areas of your own demand would you see declining or increasing?
Discussion
In policing there are several areas where more demand is expected in the future in general. These include cybercrime and online fraud, with some offences being under-reported, such as domestic violence. In the future it is likely that some of these types of offences will be reported more. There is a trend towards some additional non-crime demand for resources, especially that related to incidents involving mental health. Some crimes, such as burglary have fallen. You may have some very specific local trends in demand that others might not see so much.
OpenLearn - Capacity and demand management
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