<b>Introduction</b>

3.1 Arguments for nuclear energySafetyThe safety argument focuses mainly on the risks to human health. It essentially transforms a previous perceived weakness into a present strength. The evidence of enhanced leukaemias and genetic effects near nuclear sites is inconclusive; association does not indicate causation. In any case there has been a progressive reduction in emission levels of radioactivity, and the risks to the health of workers and the general population are well within regulatory limits, which are themselves extremely conservative. Nuclear energy’s safety record, with few accidents and stringent procedures, is contrasted with dangerous technologies such as coal (mining accidents), oil (drilling platform disasters) and gas. As Kidd argues, ‘Thousands of deaths in coal mining each year, explosions at gas terminals and devastating floods when hydro dams are breached receive a fraction of the publicity accorded to even minor nuclear incidents’ (Kidd, 2007a, p. 77).SecurityThere are three aspects to this. First is security of supply. Unlike renewables, nuclear energy offers continuous baseload supply. Second, nuclear is substantially an indigenous source of supply with an established infrastructure (although dependent on imports of uranium, which can be stored), and not, like oil or gas, potentially exposed to possible disruption of supplies (whether deliberate, accidental or commercial). Third, to ensure security of nuclear materials, nuclear sites are well protected and comply with international regimes of safeguards to prevent proliferation.EconomicsThe economic arguments have seemingly shifted more in favour of nuclear. Whereas in 2003 nuclear was considered ‘likely to remain more expensive than fossil-fuelled generation, especially in a liberalised market’ (Cabinet Office, 2002, p. 103), by the time of the 2007 white paper it was argued that nuclear power ‘would yield economic benefits to the UK in terms of reduced carbon emissions and security of supply benefits’ (DTI, 2007, p. 191). In other words, it could be competitive within a liberalised market with carbon trading where environment and security were taken into account in the price of carbon. Although it would be up to the private sector to provide the investment and meet the liabilities of decommissioning and waste disposal, the regulatory and planning requirements would be reduced. In any case, scale economies using new, more efficient reactor systems are bringing down the costs of construction, financing, operating and liabilities to the point where nuclear can ‘offer electricity at predictable low and stable costs for up to sixty years of operation’ (World Nuclear Association, undated, p. 21). Given that nuclear has low operating costs (fuel accounts for only about five per cent of total costs) economies in capital investment could make a big difference to its competitiveness. Uranium reserves are reasonably assured and only in the event of a major expansion of nuclear energy worldwide is there likely to be pressure on supplies.EnvironmentClimate change has become a core argument in favour of nuclear energy. A replacement nuclear programme would provide a low-carbon electricity output capable of operating at high load factors and providing a continuous supply. Comparing emission levels over the whole life cycle of alternative sources, it has been estimated that nuclear emits between 7 and 22g/kWh, similar to wind energy in contrast to 380 for gas and 830 for coal-fired plant (DTI, 2007). It is nuclear energy’s potential contribution to lowering carbon output that is decisive in shifting support in favour of nuclear. ‘It may be premature to say that the intellectual battle in favour of nuclear power has been won, but it is increasingly looking that way’ (Kidd, 2007b, p. 20-3). Nuclear energy also avoids other forms of pollution associated with gas or oil. It may be portrayed as a clean and green form of electricity supply. Environmental impacts are regulated by applying international radiological principles (International Commission on Radiological Protection, ICRP) to discharge limits to air and land and through international agreements to limit marine discharges (Paris Convention) and the banning of dumping at sea (London Dumping Convention).Radioactive wasteOne of the main problems with nuclear energy is the long-lasting legacy of radioactive waste. Supporters of nuclear energy have become increasingly confident that deep geological disposal of the most dangerous wastes provides a solution that is technically and scientifically robust, and which can achieve public acceptability. Consequently, that most intractable of nuclear energy’s problems is solved, thus removing a barrier to further expansion.Public acceptabilityNuclear energy has enjoyed increasingly favourable public opinion surveys. Nuclear energy provides investment and jobs and the basis for economic security in communities that host nuclear plants. Among the population as a whole, low-carbon electricity from nuclear energy is seen as far preferable to the high carbon emissions from coal, oil and gas. And nuclear is seen as necessary to plug the ‘energy gap’ and prevent the lights going out.

3.2 Arguments against nuclear energySafetyWith regard to safety, there is some suggestive evidence of leukaemia clusters and genetic defects associated with nuclear facilities. Despite the low levels of emissions, uncertainties about the impacts on health of radiation exposure from routine and accidental discharges make it preferable to avoid nuclear energy in favour of less problematic options. The precautionary principle should apply. There is also an abiding concern about the possibility of low-probability/high-consequence accidents such as Chernobyl, which could have widespread and devastating impacts on human health and environments.SecurityFor cost and technical reasons nuclear plants must run continuously to supply baseload electricity. The more the baseload is provided by nuclear the less room there will be for renewables offering baseload low-cost electricity. In respect of energy security, nuclear relies on foreign sources of uranium, which could become scarcer or of lower grade if worldwide demand increases rapidly in response to a nuclear renaissance. Just as some gas comes from potentially politically unstable countries, so the UK ‘may become equally dependent on uranium imports from similar foreign sources’ (House of Commons, 2006, p. 36). Then there are the risks of proliferation and terrorist attack. The destructive potential of nuclear power is sometimes presented in dramatic language: for example, Ulrich Beck (1992) pronounces that ‘the effect only exists when it occurs, and when it occurs, it no longer exists, because nothing exists any more’ (p. 38). It is argued that nuclear plants are particularly attractive targets and therefore vulnerable to terrorist attacks, which, if successful, could precipitate uncontrollable and widespread devastation. For reasons of security nuclear plants are closely guarded and fenced off, with limited access. In some countries they have been the scenes of clashes, sometimes violent, between police and protesters.EconomicsNuclear energy has high capital costs relative to other options (around three times those of fossil-fuel plants) and, together with long lead times (about ten years) and long operating periods (now up to sixty years), this represents a considerable investment risk to private capital. Critics point to a tendency for ‘appraisal optimism’ to underestimate costs and, in the absence of guaranteed prices, to the problem of achieving a sufficiently high rate of return over a very long period in a liberalised market, albeit within a context of carbon pricing. Cost overruns and failure to meet deadlines have been the norm for the industry so far. There is also the possibility that the cost of uranium could increase in the longer term as supplies diminish and lower grades are used. Costs of decommissioning and waste management are difficult to calculate over such long periods and it is almost inevitable that subsidy will be needed in one form or another.EnvironmentWhile nuclear energy is certainly low-carbon, it is not carbon-free. The nuclear cycle involves mining, milling, fuel enrichment and fabrication, all of which require energy, at present coming mainly from high-carbon sources. Energy is also consumed in the construction of nuclear plants and in the rear-end activities of the nuclear cycle: reprocessing, decommissioning and waste management. Nuclear energy’s critics argue that, overall, the contribution of new nuclear plants to carbon reduction is likely to be modest and can be met by other means, notably renewables and energy efficiency. Nuclear energy has an impact on the environment in other ways too. Uranium mining and the associated tailing ponds scar and contaminate landscapes and there are concerns about possible impacts on marine ecosystems arising from discharges into coastal waters.Radioactive wasteThe problem of radioactive waste has been a major source of opposition to nuclear energy. Long-term storage presents a risk to present and future generations and there is the possibility that containment systems in a deep repository will not prevent the release of radionuclides into the environment in the distant future. While it is recognised that the problem of legacy wastes (those arising from past and current activities) must be managed, additional wastes from a new building programme would exacerbate the problem. Since there is, as yet, no acceptable long-term solution to the management of high-level wastes, there should be no new nuclear programme.Public acceptabilityWhile public opinion varies on the question of nuclear energy, polls consistently report overwhelming concern about radioactive waste. Nuclear investment diverts attention and resources from renewables and energy efficiency, which can contribute far more to carbon reduction. New nuclear stations will not be ready in time to plug the energy gap but will lock us in to an inflexible form of power supply for sixty years or more. Nuclear power stations and waste management facilities create fear, anxiety and blight among the communities in which they are sited. Nuclear activities are imposed on vulnerable communities who bear the risks on behalf of society as a whole. Moreover, the legacy of nuclear activities passes a burden on to the future, extending down the generations.