Module1_Lecture1_Food and Sustainability --- So this is the course climate change food system and planetary Health - how to mitigate climate change through a sustainable food production and consumption. Hello. My name is Alana Kluczkovski, I work at the University of Manchester and today invited by TIDE project I'm going to lecture to you this course climate change Food Systems and planetary health and we are going to discuss the relevant subjects of the impact of the food systems on the planet and how it affects Planetary Health. We will also discuss how we can tackle climate change throughout our food choices. So let's get it started. This is just to explain how the course is structured. So, it consists of two modules with three lectures and two practical activities at the end of the second lecture and third lectures on the module. One of which we will conceptualizes climate change, greenhouse gases and the relationship with Planetary Health. It will include a lecture titled 'define the concepts of climate change and greenhouse gases', followed by another lecture titled 'intersections of Planetary Health and climate change' after these two lectures. We have a first practical activity with an analysis of one report. The second module discusses the social-cultural and economic effects of climate change and it contains a lecture and a practical activity. So, lecture number 3 discusses the relationship between food systems and greenhouse gas emissions and is followed by a creative activity in which participants/you are invited to blow up balloons on climate change. So this is about the structure of this course. In this course you will learn about the climate change and greenhouse gases concepts, the environmental impact of food production and the importance of this knowledge to achieve planetary health and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this course we will also demonstrate the health impact of climate change and propose evidence-based actions that impact planetary health. And by the end of the course you will be able to understand the socio-cultural and economic effects of climate change on planetary health. At this first lecture, we are going to define the concepts of climate change and greenhouse gases. To begin, this is a beautiful visualisation of the global temperature over the last century and a half displaying blue for low temperatures and red for higher temperatures. The left side of the plot is 1850 and time increases to the right up to 2018 on the right edge of the box. These was taken from climate lab book, which is a project called 'Warming stripes for for 1852 to 2018 using the WMO annual global temperature dataset'. Going back thousands of years, the international scientific consensus is that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and since 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. And the total warming between pre-industrial times since 1850 to 1910 and the recent decade to 2006 to 2015 is about one degree Celsius. In this map, we observe the surface temperature on Earth since 1901 Trends have been calculated where data availability permits a robust estimate. For example, only for grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period. Other areas are white. Grid boxes where the trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a plus sign. So, pretty much everywhere we observe this pattern of higher temperatures or increasing temperatures. This plot shows a work done by Professor Myles Allen of Oxford University following the extraordinary European heat wave of 2003. His analysis showed that the event lay so far out of the normal two standard deviation band around the historical average, and that it could be argued that the event would never have occurred without a certain level of background warming. A recent paper by NASA climatologist James Hansen explores the phenomenon in considerable death and shows with some conviction that extreme heat events should be a cause for concern. As illustrated in this plot, Hansen has shown that the distribution of seasonal temperature has indeed shift, leading to an increase in anomalous events. An important change is the emergency of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers more than three standard deviations warmer than 1951 to 1980 baseline. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the base period, now typically covers about 10 percent of the land area.He concludes that extreme heat waves such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were caused by global warming, because they are likelihood was negligible prior to the recent global warming. In this figure we see extreme heat events days through the years. The expected days of extreme heat events in every a thousand days. So, global warming over the last century means heat extremes that previously only occurred once every thousand days now are happening four to five times more often, according to this study published in nature climate change. It was found that one in five extremely rainy events experienced globally are a result of the 0.85 Celsius degrees global rise in temperature since the Industrial Revolution. So comparing the first and second line, we see that in the pre-industrial revolution we had one day at every a thousand days of extreme heat events, and, today, whith an increase in temperature of 0.85 degrees Celsius, we have four to five days every a thousand days. And we can consider with Industrial Revolution as power plants factories and cars continue to pump out greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. What we can consider if we have an increasing of two or three Celsius degrees warming, so future warming will bring a more volatile and dangerous world, even if the world manages to keep temperature rises within 2 Celsius limit to which governments have committed even so it will be dangerous for the planet. In this case, we would have about 27 days of extreme heat events and every thousand days. So on average any given place on Earth will experience 60% more extreme rain events and 20% and 27 extreme hot days. Numbers of extreme weather events spiral even higher at a rise of 3 Celsius degrees, a level of warming that the world is on track to exceed with current levels of manmade Global greenhouse gas emissions. So, drawing links between specific weather events in climate change can erode the sense that climate change is something that will happen in the future, rather than causing havoc in the present. But the science, called attribution, has proved complicated. So, the conclusion is that in the past we experienced one day every thousand days of extreme heat events passing for today 4 to 5 days every thousand days and we could experience 27 to 62 extreme heat events every thousand days, which is quite alarming. So, we are talking about the past and the current and the future climate and how extreme heat events are increasing through this time, but why is this happening? The greenhouse effect is well understood - vital for life on Earth. This we already know. The greenhouse effect is a natural process where atmospheric gases trap heat - a phenomena that allows the Earth to retain enough solar heat to be liveable. This is a natural greenhouse effect. And without the greenhouse effect the Earth would not support most forms of life. Well, although the process is complex, the greenhouse effect can be described fairly simply: sunlight passes through the atmosphere. Clouds ice caps and other light coloured surface reflect sunlight back into space, but most of the incoming energy reaches the planet surface, then the Earth radiates heat back towards space. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb that heat bouncing some back to the Earth's surface and releasing some into the atmosphere. Some disturbances of the Earth's balance of incoming and outgoing energy are referred to as positive or negative climate forcings. Positive forcings, such as greenhouse gas emissions, exert a warming influence on the earth while negative forcing such as sulfate aerosols, exert a cooling influence. So, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from Anthropogenic sources have increased the absorption and emission of infrared radiation enhancing the natural greenhouse effect. Then, methane and other greenhouse gases are more potent, but CO2 contributes most to warming because of its prevalence. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, to date, amount to a climate forcing roughly equal to one percent of the net incoming solar energy, or the energy equivalent of burning 13 million barrels of oil every minute. In this case, we see what is the difference between the natural greenhouse effect and the human enhancer the greenhouse effect besides being natural greenhouse gases. See into the atmosphere anthropogenic emissions have increased the number of those gases into the atmosphere and it is increasing the temperature of the Earth. Then what's the problem with the greenhouse gases? The carbon dioxide variations plot on the left side shows the variation in concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere during the last 400,000 years. Throughout most of the record, the largest changes can be related to glacial/interglacial cycles within the current Ice Age.Although the glacial cycles are most directly caused by changes in the Earth‘s orbit (i.e., Milankovitch cycles), these changes also influence the carbon cycle, which in turn feeds back into the glacial system. Since the Industrial Revolution, around 1800, the burning of fossil fuels has caused a dramatic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, reaching levels unprecedented in the last 400,000 years. This increase has been implicated as a primary cause of global warming. This figure was originally prepared by Robert A. Rohde from publicly available data and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project). So it's possible to observe that even if with the Ice Age cycles, on the zoom part, we see the industrial revolution has caused a dramatic rise in CO2. So in the last few years, we have an increased/a boost that we haven't seen before. And was exactly since the industrial era began, that humans have had an increasing effect on climate, particularly by adding billions of tons of heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Modern climate change is caused by an excess of greenhouse gases. This, in turn, over-insulates the planet, as a result, temperatures rise. It's like wearing a winter parka in the tropics. The effect is similar, too much insulation causes the planet to overheat and which has already begun to change the climate. Consequently, greater concentrations of greenhouse gases mean more solar radiation is trapped within the Earth's atmosphere, making temperatures rise. These climate models most closely match the observed temperature trend only when natural and anthropogenic forcings are considering together. In 2013, the intergovernmental panel on climate change also known as IPCC concluded that it is extremely likely, more than 95 percent certainty, that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century. Now let's discuss a little bit more about greenhouse gases. What are the greenhouse gases? Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other gases that accumulate in the atmosphere and create the heat reflective layer that keeps the Earth at a lovable temperature. These gases formed the insulation that keeps the planet warm enough to support life. Some of the most common - and worrisome - greenhouse gases are: carbon dioxide or CO2, in which, is emitted whenever coal, oil, natural gas and other carbon rich fossil fuels are burned. Although carbon dioxide or CO2 is not the most powerful greenhouse gas, it is the largest contributor to climate change because it is so common. In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, we need to reduce the amount of fuel we use in our cars, for example, homes and lives. Methane is caused by the composition of plant matter and is released from landfills swamps and rice paddies. Cattle also release methane. We will see this later on on this course. So keep this information for now. Although methane emissions are lower than carbon dioxide emissions, it is considered a major greenhouse gas because each methane molecule has 25 times the global warming potential of a carbon dioxide molecule, that's why we consider that methane is more toxic or more powerful than carbon dioxide molecule. We also have nitrous oxide that is released from bacteria in soil. Modern agriculture practices - for example, tilling and soil cultivation, livestock, waste management, and the use of nitrogen rich fertilisers - contribute significantly to nitrous oxide emissions. Just to have an idea, as single nitrous oxide molecule has 298 times the global warming potential of a carbon dioxide molecule. So, in terms of powerfulness, we see carbon dioxide, then methane, and then nitrous oxide in global warming potential. Other additional greenhouse gas include hydrofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride and water vapor both. Hydrofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride have much more global warming power than carbon dioxide. Hydrofluorocarbons, for example, can reach 14 thousand times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide. So, sulfur hexafluoride, for example, twenty two thousand times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide. Of a list of 20 greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide accounts for by far the largest share of radiative forcing since 1990s, and its contribution continue to grow at a steady rate. And this is what we see on this plot, since 90s the contributions continues to grow at a steady rate. So, we discussed about the past, the current and the future climate, and the natural greenhouse effect and human enhanced Greenhouse Effect and how carbon dioxide variates in the atmosphere. And also, what are the greenhouse gases, but where do greenhouse gas emissions come from? Roughly one-fifth of all Global greenhouse gas emissions come from our use of land, mainly from the first station and emissions from livestock. This also includes fuel used for agriculture, forestry and fishing, direct soil emissions and forest fires for example. This we have discussed previously, but one question for you would going vegetarian make a difference? Short answer: would say yes, but it would only address a small portion of what is needed. Everybody remembers our parents always telling us to finish our food/plates. They were right, because not only are we tossing food while people go hungry, food waste contributes to 6.7% of global emissions. So, while people is throwing food many of them are going hungry. We can say that food waste starts well before it leaves the farm, and continuing through the distribution in storage at markets and restaurants, and all the way to our kitchen. So we also need to consider the food waste at home. Adding up food waste to food production it's possible to reach nearly 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. We say the food production and consumption in average contribute to a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions. S, again, keep this information for the next lecture. Then, we conclude that electricity and heat accounts to twenty percent of the greenhouse gas emissions, industry approximately 18% and, transportation with 14%. So, besides electricity and heat, agriculture, land and food waste, accounts for about a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Every person in the world contributes to the rising amount of greenhouse gases. However, people who live in high-income countries generally emit more greenhouse gases than low income countries by consuming more energy, also by consuming more food and more products. If we share out the right to produce greenhouse gas fairly across the world, each person will get to emit around eight tonnes. However, in one year the average Australian greenhouse gas emissions add up to about 28 tonnes, for instance the white plot on the right shows the carbon dioxide emissions per capita. In Myanmar, and this is to understand the 'footprint' of the average person in a given country. So, the chart does not include land use changes indeed, but is possible to observe approximately 0.5 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in to 2019, which is much less than Australians population per capta. According to the World Resources Institute climate analysis indicators, looking at Myanmar's carbon footprint we observe that the land use change the land use change and forestry activities were the leading source of Myanmar greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 51 percent of the country's total emissions. Within the land use change and Forestry sector changes in Forest land contributing to 73 percent of emissions. Agriculture was the second most significant source with 32.1% with rice cultivation and enteric fermentation from livestock contributing to 67 percent of agricultural emissions. Energy was responsible for 10.9 - about 11 - percent of emissions of which 50% were due to fugitive emissions and other fuel combustion. Waste and Industrial process contribute to approximately 6% and 0.2% of the total emissions, respectively. This work also, analyzes the change in greenhouse gas emissions in Burma from 1990 to 2013, and according to this study, Myanmar greenhouse gas emissions increased by 34.8 MtCO2e from 1990 to 2013. The average annual change in total emissions during this period was 0.9% with sector-specific average annual changes as followS: for land use and changing forestry 0.01%, agriculture 2.2%, and Energy 5.1%, waste approximately 1.6 percent, and Industrial Process 2.7 percent. So, the change in emissions in the two highest emitting sectors during this period is discussed in this plot and we have an overview of all activities and how it contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in to Atmosphere. So recapping at this lecture, we've learned that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedent over decades to millennia. And also, the total warming between pre-industrial times and the recent decades is about 1 degree celsius. The second point is, that the global warming over the last century means heat extreme that previously only occurred once every thousand days are happening now four to five times more often, and future warming will bring a more volatile dangerous world, even if the world managed to keep the temperature rises within two degrees to three degrees limit to which governments have committed. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous, oxide and other gases gases that accumulating in the atmosphere and create the heat reflective layer that keeps the Earth at a livable temperature. These gases form the insulation that keeps the planet warm enough to support life. We have learned that the greenhouse effect is natural process, but since the industrial era era began humans have had an increase in effect on climate particularly by adding billions of tons of heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Number 4. People who live in high-income countries generally emit more greenhouse gases than low income countries by consuming more energy, more food and, more product. The Myanmar's carbon footprint we observe that the land use change and Forestry activities were the leading source of Burma's greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 51 percent of the country's total emissions. This is the the main points that we've discussed and the main takeaways from this lecture. We're going to finish by now. We will follow the next lecture on this module. Thank you so much.