TIDE Lecture 1: climate crisis and agriculture


Hi, my name is Amanda Bamford. I'm Professor of Plant Sciences at the University
of Manchester. So welcome to this short course. This course is all about climate
crisis and agriculture. So it's going to consist of two lectures and two activities.
So this first lecture is going to introduce you to the course and how its structured
and it's also introducing you to climate change and it's impacts on agriculture.
So I hope you enjoy this course.
And let's start.

So firstly I'd like to go through the learning outcomes from the two sessions that
make up this course on climate change and agriculture. So the first session will
be lecture 1, this lecture is where you will gain an appreciation of the vulnerability
of agriculture to climate change and it's impacts on crop yield particularly rice.
This lecture will be accompanied by an activity where you will examine research
data from a recent paper in a journal on impacts of climate change on rice.

Then the second session will involve a lecture  where you will gain an appreciation
and discuss how climate smart agriculture can help maintain yields and a stressful
environmental conditions that will result from the climate crisis.
And again this session  will also involve an activity where you will examine and
discuss climate smart case studies.
So what is the climate crisis?
The world's population is growing, its predicted to reach 9 billion by 2040- 2050
but climate is changing as well as long-lived greenhouse gases increase.
So we've got the rising population, but also the changing climate due to increases
in CO2, nitrous oxide, greenhouse gases as well as methane and chlorofluorocarbons,
CFCs, like the ones shown in this graph... like CFC-12.
So all these increase in greenhouse gases will result in changes in our climate.
Temperatures are increasing, sea level rises.
So these two graphs on the right show data from IPCC report, AR5, the top
graph shows the average temperature change relative to 1986 to 2005. 
So that's the base level and you can see on the top graph.
The red line is increasing as we reach the year 2100.
so the red line represents RCP 8.5... now RPC 8.5 is the representative concentration
pathway of 8.5 watts per meter squared and in this pathway is where there's no adaptation
no mitigation, and we emit greenhouse gases just as we are
at the moment. The blue line on graph a
shows the increase in surface temperature at the RCP of 2.6. Now this pathway
is where global politics and policies come in... to restrict emissions
very dramatically and we even had negative emissions. So there's carbon capture
and there's other scenarios. There's other Pathways in between these two but these
are the two extremes and for the 2.6 pathway the predicted increase in temperature
globally is round about 1.5 to 2 degrees C. And for the 8.5 pathway, it could even
reach an increase for degree C which will be devastating for agricultural production.
The graph on the bottom right, graph B, shows Global mean level sea level rises relative
to 1986 to 2005.
And again, you can see the increases in sea levels over the time period 2100 so
we've got increases in temperatures,
increases in sea levels, but not only that we also have rainfall patterns that are
going to change with the changing climate. Now this model of rainfall changes shows
you mean precipitation change across the globe to 2100. I must point out at this
stage that the global average as
Averages do mask seasonal effects. And also at this level it is very difficult to
see in country or small changes that still might have a very devastating effect
on agriculture. So in this map the red is a percent decrease in rainfall and the
darker blues increases in rainfall.
And you can see that there's lots of variation across the globe and we must make
you aware that this sort of simulation is a very, very difficult to come up with
very accurate predictions. Rainfall is a very, very difficult parameter to model and
the tiny dots that you might see or where the models have very good high and confidence
and agree very well, but there's many areas where there's still a lot of uncertainty
of what the actual rainfall pattern will be.
And this simulation is based on the RCP 8.5. So if you remember, that's the one
where there's no limitation on carbon emissions. No policies. We just carry on as
we are at the moment. So this is the 'worst case scenario' if you like.
So there's also increase in number of natural disasters that could affect agriculture.
So the increase in temperature increases in sea level increases or decreases in
rainfall and increases in the number of natural disasters or all going to have a
devastating impact on an agricultural production globally.
So there has been some efforts to actually come up with a climate Risk Index due
to extreme weather. So this map is just analyzing the impacts of extreme weather
events. It's not looking at rainfall changes per se or temperatures. It's looking
at those extreme weather effects, and I'm sure you all know.
Climate change is thought to increase the occurrence of these
extreme weather events, and you can see there's areas which are in red are where
the risk is much much higher for extreme weather events than other areas. So the
darker the red the more Climate Risk Index is higher.
And in this Risk Index was published in 2021.
It actually puts Myanmar as the second highest country at risk from extreme
weather events.
So I'm sure you've all been aware that there's been many instances recently of sudden
destruction of crops by storms. So for example
cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar in 2008 severely affected the lives and
livelihoods of am estimated 2.4 million people.
And it's predicted that these sort of events will become more and more frequent.
With sea level rises and increases in rainfall in some parts of the world. They
will get increased flooding of farmland, which obviously could devastate crops and
for example in 2015. There was extreme Monsoon weather.
Don't know whether you remember in Cyclone Komen affected more than 1.6 million
people and inundated more than 1.4 million acres of farmland.
So drought occurrences are predicted to happen in some areas and then obviously
if there's drought there's going to be a lack of water to irrigate the farmlands
and this is especially a problem in central Myanmar which is considered a dry Zone
and it's challenging because of the frequent droughts.
So the droughts will become more frequent in the dry Zone.
But in other areas that's going to be increasing flooding and if that results from
sea water that's going to increase the amount of salt in the soil, which can destroy
the crop.
So drought can lead to accumulation of salts in the soil from your irrigated water.
But also increased salt due to flood in by the sea water and plants and
agricultural crops don't like growing in salty soil.
But it's not just in mMyanmar, in the UK we also have flood warnings and we have lots
and lots of floods recently and on the 6th of April 2021 there was a one serious
flood warning on that day. Whereas no immediate action was required lucky enough in that
April. There was no severe flooding where it's a danger to life.
But these sort of events are predicted to happen more and more and will obviously
have devastating impacts on our agriculture.
So it's a climate crisis.
We've got tropical Cyclones, increasing landslides, increasing flood, some flash floods
and extreme high temperatures and droughts. So depending on where you live in Myanmar,
where you live in the world, you will increasingly have to deal with these extreme
events.
So I keep mentioning how these impacts on agriculture, how vulnerable is agriculture
to climate change and these impacts that I've been talking about.
Well, first of all, I want to remind you of what food security is... so food security
is when all people at all times have physical social and economic access so they
can afford it to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary requirements
and their food preferences for an active healthy life. So,
this is what we want for all people of the world.
Everybody deserves food security.
Unfortunately, there's many routes to impact of climate change on agriculture production.
I'm a plant scientist. So I'm very much interested in the left-hand column where
it's direct effects of climate change, how it can affect the morphological and developmental
structures of plants, how it can result in physiological changes and phenotypic 
changes and plant
productivity very often because of the increases in temperature and carbon dioxide
that are part of climate change, but obviously that other researchers that are interested
in the social economic impacts. So that's right hand
column, we're looking at food demand, farmers response, policy, trade and there's also
in the middle column indirect effects of climate change where it indirect affects
soil fertility, for example, salt accumulation or the ability of availability
of water for irrigation.
An increase in pests. Heavy floods, drought all these are going to affect agricultural
production.
So there are adaptation strategies, which I'm going to talk about in lecture 2 and
how farmers and scientists can help agriculture adapt to these dramatic changes
that are predicted into the future. This slide shows the changes in crop yield between
2010 to 2050. So it's simulated with a computer models.
They looked at the yields of 11 crops and the redder, the darker red of the color
is a decrease in yield and the greener
is the increase in yield and this was done in 2013. This actual map was created
in 2013 by Wheeler and Von Braun and you can see again the variability across the
world, but there's many parts of the countries and
individual countries that will show a percent change in yields, which is actually
a decrease in yields.. also all those red colors across this map show a decrease in yield
predicted for the year 2050.
So let's have a look at the temperature impacts on agriculture. So as I've said
temperature is predicted to increase to hopefully 2 degrees C, but it could be up
to four degrees C by 2050. So how is these global temperatures changing in areas
where and main crops are grown. Many maps and data that you will see look
at average global level but crops are grown all around the world. So this particular paper
in 2017 looked at just the data in those areas where these four main food crops
are grown wheat, rice, Maize and soybean.
So the top graph shows the temperature changes in those areas up to 2017 for those
areas. Just growing those main crops and you can see the temperatures of already
increased in some areas above 1 degree C to the compared to the Baseline.
In the bottom graph
is the predictions into the future, of what the temperatures will be in the future.
In these areas where these main food crops are grown so you can see from the left
is wheat, rice, Maize, soybean, and this is the global average.
Just what the whole group the globe not just where the food crops are grown and
you can see some of these areas
really high predicted increases in temperature going into the future. Each different
bar is a different RCP. So the bright yellow is the one could even imagine the worst
case scenario. Lots of people don't particularly like that terminology, but you
can see all these crops will be exposed to higher temperatures
into the future. So how are they going to cope with these temperatures? As some of
these crops going to be more able to cope with these high temperatures than others.
Does this mean that in some of these areas they won't be able to grow that crop
at all!
You can actually go and look at temperature projections on a country basis in some
places and I found this one for Myanmar. It's a simulation run on the World
Bank Group website on this slide at the bottom. I've given you the link to the site
and the data here is for RCP 4.5. So that's the one in the middle the one of the
The prediction pathway that most people think we will probably follow it's not the
worst case. It's not the best case and I've helped thoroughly recommend you go and
look on this website. It will look at comparing predictions into the future back
to 2005 and comparing how the temperatures will change and you can see here on the
graph.
If on the right hand side, it actually does it by month and you can download this
data. You can put different parameters in different Pathways in and to see what
the change in temperature will be in Myanmar into the future.
In just out of interest in 2010 an extreme temperature was recorded at 40...
47.2 degrees C in the dry Zone!
I don't know anyone, if anyone was around in the dry Zone at this area at the time,
but 47.2 sounds very hot to me!
Get a really important question ... what will be the impact of these increasing temperatures
on crop yield?
That's the question.
So people have been trying to answer this question. So this is data from a paper
published in 2017.
So this is looking at the temperature impact on from the bottom or left.. wheat, rice,
Maize and soybean.
And the y-axis is percent
change in yield per 1 degree C.
And you can see in wheat for a one degree change in temperature would reduce yield
by 6% rice, rice round about 3%, maize about 7% and soybean about 2%. Obviously in
the paper you can go and look at the actual numbers, but you can see all these
four major crops will
decrease in their yield with an increase in temperature and this is just one study.
There's lots of other studies on the numbers vary slightly, but the main messages.
For these mainly food crops their yields will decrease with increase in temperature.
So looking at the predicted changes in temperature by the year 2100 you can predict
your changes just due to temperature changes and you can see in this graph on the
right hand side wheat, rice, Maize and soybean all decrease in their yields.
... it could be up to 25%
with increases in temperature that are predicted to happen by the year 2100. And
the two different colors  on the bar chart... the pinky color is the RCP 4.6.
So that's sort of the middle of the road pathway, which hopefully we will be on
but even on that pathway there's
real impact on yields, on an agricultural yields. And the brown bar chart shows
RCP 8.8 which, 8.5 sorry, which is much, much higher impact. So the more the increases
in temperature the more the impact and that's why it's critical that we manage our
carbon emissions so that
you can try and minimize which of these RCP Pathways we move along as we move into
the future. Because the effects on our agricultural production are going to be devastating
and then how we're going to maintain or even give food security to people around
the world because these temperature changes and rainfall changes, as I'm going to
mention in a minute, are going to make it so it's going to be harder and harder
for food security and to maintain an agricultural crop production. So that
was temperature. What about rainfall?
I showed you earlier map of global changes on rainfall pattern. So for rainfall,
the big question is what are the rainfall patterns for key agricultural regions?
What are they going to be in those particular areas where we're going the major
food crops to feed our populations? So research until 2019 warned that globally
up to fourteen percent of the land dedicated wheat, rice, Maize and soybean are going
to have less rainfall and it might even result in drought but up to 30% might actually
see increases in rain...
.. which if it's only minor, will actually benefit agricultural production. But
just like everything else if it's too much it can have a detrimental effect. It
could lead to flooding as I've mentioned and it could have a really devastating
effect on agricultural yields.
This website, mentioned before thatfrom the World Bank group, is actually called
the climate change knowledge portal. You can look at rainfall projections for Myanmar.
And here you can see one of the outputs and again, I put in RCP 4.5 sort of the
middle of the road pathway and it comes up with projected changes in precipitation
and you can put in different years. I put in the years for 2040 to 2059, but you
can put any sort of years that you want into the model prediction. And you can see
on the left hand side in the map. The monthly precipitation is particularly increased
rainfall for the southern part of Myanmar and less for the higher other areas the
Northern areas so you can look at these maps you can zoom in and have a look at
more detail.
So because of all these changes to rainfall temperature that going to have impact
on on crop yields. They're obviously going to have an effect on the prices as well.
And it's already been shown that climate change is already affected global food
production.
And rice feeds many many millions of people around the world. So rice, the
prices are really crucial for food security.
And the models predict that Rice productivity will reduce by 14% in South Asia, 10%
in East Asia and the Pacific, and 15% in sub-sahara Africa by 2050... in many areas
where rice is the main food crop.
And by 2050 rice prices are predicted to increase by 32 to 37 percent as a result
of climate change, a result of this climate crisis, and this will really affect the
food security of the populations, especially in the areas I've just mentioned.
This 2019 study looked in detail on Rice yields and this map shows the effect of
the changes in the future, in tons per year of rice yields.
The brown color
in this map shows reduction in rice yields and the green colors show gains in yield
due to climate change. Nn this slide I've given you the link to this paper because
the level of detail is very difficult to pick out on this slide, but you can see
in the main rice growing areas of the world there's going to be changes... some it's
going to and in many cases going to be reduction in yield. Although some areas will
benefit for maybe increases in temperature and small increases in rainfall as well
long as they're not too high.
The plant productivity will increase long as the increases are small.
So Agriculture is really important in Myanmar. I'm sure I don't need to tell
you... and the agricultural sector including livestock and Fisheries, the data I managed
to find, was 27.8% percent of the GDP and provide 70% of the employment
in Myanmar. So much of Myanmar, most population living in rural areas and highly dependent
on small-scale agriculture.
So we're talking about small farms and about two-thirds of the cultivated land is
used for rice production. And it's mostly rain fed, it is not irrigated and about one-third
for beans and pulses. So what does this mean in terms of Agriculture and Myanmar?
How vulnerable is it going to be to climate change?
Well, the present-day agricultural productivity in Myanmar is overall is quite low
compared to other areas.
And you can see in the graph on the right hand side on the bottom is different countries.
And on the y-axis is yields in tonnes per hectare and this is for Rice yields in
Monsoon paddies for 2013 to 2014. And so you can see on the left, the bottom you've
got Cambodia then Myanmar and then Thailand and you can see Myanmar's agricultural
production of Rice's is
low compared to the other countries and there's many reasons for this. So this is at
the present low rates of fertilizer. Fertilizer is very expensive, poor access to
irrigation. As I said many of these small farms that are rain-fed which is going to
be makes them very vulnerable to any changes in rainfall and in 2014 and 2015 only
15%
of the crop area was part of the public irrigation system... because obviously
irrigation allows you to control the amount of water your crops get so they don't
become droughted and they don't become flooded and they have the optimum water supply
for growth. So this 15%, that was irrigated, public irrigation system is much lower
than Indonesia and Thailand, which is about 30%,
China it's about 50% and Vietnam about 70%. So irrigation is really key to increasing
rice productivity.
Because if it's rain fed, then it's vulnerable to the Climate crisis.
So I'd like to end up with some key messages.... until 2030 global warming and changing
rainfall would lead to yield losses,
about O,2 percent per decade, but it depends on the place and the conditions
and how it will change and also depend on the crop that growing. It might mean that
some places will have to change the crops that they grow because it would no longer
optimal to grow the original crop.
And then beyond 2030 negative impacts on agricultural yields will be increasingly
severe in all areas. So some areas might benefit for slight increase in rainfall
and a slight increase in temperature as I said earlier, but as these temperatures
rise and the change in rainfall patterns become more extreme, the impacts are going
to be more and more severe.
In tropical areas, these adverse effects are already affecting food Security in
vulnerable households and communities, and in fact around the world, there's more
and more evidence that the adverse impacts are already being realized. So these
are key messages from 'Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security ...the FAO report.
in 2016 I've given you ref at the bottom left of this slide. So there's really strong
messages here of how vulnerable climate change is going to be into the future. And
the other message is some of these changes are already taking place. Now! These
impacts are already taking place now.
So that's the end of this first lecture. So now after this lecture will go on to
do the Activity 1 where we going to doing some data analysis on climate change
impacts on rice. I'll be giving you some data from recent papers and then we're
going to talk about what do they mean in terms of its impacts?
And also on crop yields and on
the quality of the grain
So thank you for listening. And now you can go and watch the activity 1 on data
analysis.