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Theory of Change
Introduction
This module will support your understanding and use of the Theory of Change Tool from the DIY Toolkit. You should look at the Theory of Change template which can be found on page 46 of the DIY Toolkit, before working through the module. You will find it helpful to have a printout of the Theory of Change template with you while you work through this module.
The Theory of Change is a tool that helps explain the relationship between a development problem being addressed and the strategies used to address it, showing why and how change takes place.
A Theory of Change can come in many different formats, but commonly involves a diagram containing boxes and arrows laid out to show how elements fit together, and why this arrangement should work.
Carrying out a Theory of Change should be a collaborative and consultative process. It connects stakeholders, clarifying a common pathway to a shared goal, promoting understanding of stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership among those involved. It is also a tool to enhance accountability, explaining the value in particular activities and so justifying the use of resources.
A key element of the Theory of Change is the identification of assumptions. Analysing and talking through these assumptions can help you to identify and plan for potential risks.
This module provides an overview of the Theory of Change model and an introduction to its value and use.
Learning outcomes
After studying this module, you should be able to:
- describe the purpose and benefits of using a Theory of Change model (SAQ 1)
- identify the steps involved in reaching a goal using the Theory of Change model (SAQ 2)
- lead a participatory process of identifying the Theory of Change for a programme or idea (SAQ 3)
- recognise how identifying assumptions helps to manage risks (SAQ 4).
1 The purpose and benefits of a Theory of Change model
Development is a results-driven sector. Those involved in delivering development projects are accountable to a range of stakeholders, including people directly affected – primary stakeholders or beneficiaries – as well as partners, donors and groups within their own organisations. A rigorous approach to a development problem involves critical analysis of all of the key steps that must take place in order to achieve the desired social change.
The Theory of Change is termed a ‘theory’ because development pathways are complicated and can be difficult to predict. For the same reason, throughout this module the word ‘model’ is used to describe the process or the tool. Through developing a Theory of Change, you can identify and analyse a range of interrelated elements to help ensure you are on the right path. You can also challenge key assumptions and mitigate risks. A well-planned Theory of Change can help ensure that the project framework is fit for purpose and therefore more likely to lead to the desired changes.
Critically, a Theory of Change must be the result of an effective participatory process where stakeholders work together to define and refine the model. The stakeholders are then more likely to own the result, increasing the likelihood of project success as well as enhancing accountability.
Figure 1 summarises the key purposes and benefits of a Theory of Change.
Activity 1
Now have a closer look at the Theory of Change template used in the DIY Toolkit. As you do so, think about a project you are familiar with or have been involved in. What was the ultimate aim or goal of the project? Can you briefly identify various elements of the project design that could fit within the template?
You will work through the Theory of Change in more detail later in the module. For now, the point of this first activity is to begin to think about how elements of the Theory of Change are sequentially linked. Long-term change is the result of a sequence of steps. Each step involves assumptions about people’s behaviours and motivations as well as external factors that may be beyond the control of stakeholders.
Note your thoughts in the box below.
2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of Change model
This section will take you through the Theory of Change model using a development example – the problem of high maternal mortality (deaths of women in childbirth) in sub-Saharan Africa. The specific challenges are that expectant mothers often do not have access to specialist obstetric care facilities and deliver their babies at home without specialist care or in facilities without trained staff or adequate equipment. Where adequate facilities do exist, women may be unaware of the benefits of using them. Access to specialist care during delivery can therefore relate both to availability and awareness.
Maternal mortality was addressed in Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG5) (United Nations, n.d.) and is now part of Sustainable Development Goal 5: ‘Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages’. The MDG5 goal (which was not met) was to reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio. (This is the ratio of the number of maternal deaths during a given time period per 100,000 live births during the same time period.)
Note that it is important to recognise that what follows is a learning exercise rather than a Theory of Change process, which must, by definition, involve other stakeholders.
Now refer to the Theory of Change template in the DIY toolkit. Starting on the left-hand side of the template, you enter the problem you are trying to solve. In the example of maternal mortality, this is poor access to, or awareness of, obstetric care facilities, insufficient trained staff and inadequate equipment in healthcare facilities.
Moving to the right on the template, you would then identify the key audience. In this example, there are two key audiences. The first is women of childbearing age. The second is the health workers involved in childbirth, from traditional birth attendants through to midwives in healthcare facilities.
In the next box you should detail the entry point for reaching the key audiences. In this example, this is village health workers (who can reach women of childbearing age as well as traditional birth attendants) and district-level health officers (who are responsible for the training of healthcare facility staff as well as the provision of equipment).
Moving further to the right you should now enter the steps needed to bring about the change. In this example, these steps involve training of midwives and traditional birth attendants, improved equipment and facilities, and raising awareness among women of childbearing age to know when to seek assistance and deliver their baby in a healthcare facility.
Of the next three columns on the right, it is often the longer-term goal that is quite clear and implicit in the identified problem.
Activity 2
Can you identify the longer-term goal in the example of maternal mortality?
Discussion
The longer-term goal is to reduce maternal mortality.
You may have recognised that the longer-term goal is not necessarily the same as the direct output (or measurable effect) of the work. In this example, the measurable effects are increased awareness among women of childbearing age of the benefits of delivering their babies in a healthcare facility, improved knowledge and skills of midwives and traditional birth attendants, and improved provision of equipment and facilities.
The wider benefits, or outcomes of the intervention, are that more women have better-quality, specialist healthcare during childbirth. The logic is that if women are more aware of the benefits of delivering their babies in healthcare facilities, and if health workers are better trained and have better equipment, then more women receive specialist care, which contributes to a reduction in maternal mortality.
Activity 3
Using the information in Section 2 and the template provided below, try to complete a Theory of Change for the example of maternal mortality. At this stage, don’t worry about completing the boxes headed ‘Key assumptions’ – you are going to work through these in Section 4. However, if you have any ideas about these now then do make some notes.
| What is the problem you are trying to solve? | Who is your key audience? | What is your entry point for reaching your key audience? | What steps are needed to bring about change? | What is the measurable effect of your work?
| What are the wider benefits of your work? | What is the long-term change you see as your goal? |
| Measurable effect?
| Wider benefits? | |||||
| Measurable effect?
| Wider benefits? | |||||
| Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Stakeholders |
Discussion
Yours may not be exactly like the example here, but did you capture the key elements summarised in the Theory of Change below?
What is the problem you are trying to solve? Poor access to, and awareness of, obstetric care, insufficient trained staff and inadequate equipment in health facilities. | Who is your key audience? Women of childbearing age Healthcare workers: traditional birth attendant (TBAs), midwives in healthcare facilities | What is your entry point for reaching your key audience? Village health workers District health officers | What steps are needed to bring about change? Training of midwives and TBAs Improved equipment and facilities Raising awareness among women of childbearing age | What is the measurable effect of your work? Increased awareness among women of child bearing age | What are the wider benefits of your work? More women have better- quality, specialist healthcare during childbirth | What is the long-term change you see as your goal? Reduced maternal mortality |
Measurable effect? Improved knowledge and skills of midwives and TBAs | ||||||
Measurable effect? Improved facilities and provision of equipment | ||||||
| Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Key assumptions | Stakeholders |
3 The participatory process of identifying the Theory of Change for a programme or idea
The example used in Section 2 was based on personal knowledge and experience of similar interventions. However, this was for the purposes of introducing the tool. In practice this is not an effective way to develop a Theory of Change. One person is unlikely to fully understand all of the issues involved, and they would not get broad consensus about the theory if nobody else has been involved in developing it.
Key point
A Theory of Change model is more effective if it is the result of a participatory process that involves as wide a range of stakeholders as practicable.
Even when you, as a development practitioner, think you have a clear idea of the problem and what needs to be done, it is still a good idea to begin a participatory process that sets aside your own preconceptions. This is because:
- you are bound to learn more from other stakeholders, and
- you want your stakeholders to own the process.
It is reasonable to identify the goal you are hoping to reach as well as some ideas about the problem, otherwise it would be difficult to assemble the appropriate stakeholders. It is likely that you will also have ideas and options about how to address the problem. But from there it is critical to develop the Theory of Change in a participatory way.
Normally this will involve inviting stakeholders to a planning session to develop the ideas further and agree on a way forward. Your stakeholders may be
- primary: those directly affected by the intervention being planned, or
- secondary: those affected indirectly.
Activity 4
The Theory of Change used in Section 2 identifies two key audiences and mentions other groups but does not list possible stakeholders. Can you list groups or individuals that you would consider as primary and secondary stakeholders who could be part of a participatory process of developing the project further, including defining the Theory of Change?
Use the text boxes below to create your two lists.
3.1 Working with stakeholders
It is not a straightforward process to identify stakeholders, let alone gather so many together. Usually you will have to make compromises. It is important to consult your key partners, such as the district health officers in this case, to help identify and invite your other potential stakeholders. You need also to consider the total number of participants. Aim for no more than about 20. With more than this it becomes difficult to ensure effective participation.
It is important to do some thorough research prior to gathering your stakeholders. Presenting the information that is available on the identified problem will help to set the scene (e.g. a map of healthcare facilities, data on the distribution of health workers, and details of other interventions that are currently taking place or planned). A summary of evidence in favour of possible interventions (steps needed to bring about change) can also be useful as you move through the model.
When you hold your workshop, you can discuss the problem with stakeholders and see if there is broad agreement about the way the problem has been identified. You may find it useful to review the Causes Diagram which can be found on page 43 of the DIY Toolkit. This can help to build a shared understanding about the problem, its effects and possible solutions. From there, you could break into small groups and ask each group to complete the section in the Theory of Change on identifying the key audience. You could then ask a representative from each small group to present back to the whole group and discuss any variations that have arisen.
The next step would be to try to narrow down the options and seek agreement, perhaps using a democratic process, voting from a choice of options (Figure 2). You could have a master version of the template on the wall that you complete as you gain consensus, then moving on to the next section to repeat the process. What arises in later sections may cause you to challenge what has been discussed in previous sections, so the process is likely to be iterative.
Activity 5
Imagine that you are going to facilitate a Theory of Change workshop. You have about 20 stakeholders coming to your workshop. Develop an outline agenda for the day and type it in the box below.
Discussion
It’s a good idea to start the day by explaining the model of the Theory of Change to your group, perhaps using an example, and then use small-group work (Figure 2) to complete the model for your project stage by stage, reverting to whole-group discussions to talk through areas of contention and to challenge assumptions.
Don’t forget to build in tea and lunch breaks to keep energy levels high. You can also consider using energisers – short physical activities – to keep people active, and build in competitions, perhaps for the clearest, best-worded statements that others vote on. You can give out prizes – tasty treats, perhaps?
4 Using assumptions to help identify key risks
At the bottom of each column of the DIY Theory of Change template is a box labelled ‘Key assumptions’. Assumptions help to explain the Theory of Change process and the connections between the measurable effects, wider benefits and the longer-term goal, as well as how and why proposed activities are expected to bring these changes about.
Assumptions are often taken for granted and may be based on opinions or beliefs. However, they can also be founded on research or best practice. Assumptions can help to catalyse a discussion about critical questions and lead to consensus among stakeholders, strengthening the case for the pathway selected.
Assumptions that turn out to be incorrect can lead to mistakes (Figure 3). It is therefore very important in developing a Theory of Change that you identify, analyse and challenge assumptions with your stakeholders. This will lead to increased understanding and a process of refining both assumptions and other elements of the theoretical framework.
Case Study 1: The problems with assumptions
Grace works on a livelihoods project in Malawi funded by development partners. The problem being addressed is high levels of youth unemployment, so the target group is ‘out-of-school youths’. However, there are several assumptions underlying this definition. Grace summarises some of these below together with their associated problems.
| Assumption | Problem |
| Youths belong to an accepted age group. | The definition of youth is variable. In Malawi it includes everyone between the ages of 10 and 35. However, the project may not be aimed at everyone in this age range. Also, there is an assumption that everyone can identify his or her own age, which is not always the case. |
| Out-of-school youths are in need of support. | Some young people may have opted out of school and started enterprises or are in gainful employment. |
| Out-of-school youths are beyond school age. | Out-of-school youths can be of school age (see above). In many countries, including Malawi, not all children enrol in, or complete, school. Sometimes children do not attend because they are unable to afford school fees, or they are required to help in the home. |
| Levels of youth unemployment are known. | Unemployment is not always easy to define and measure. Youths may be involved in some kind of economic activity while still not fully or gainfully employed. In many cases systems may not be adequate to accurately measure unemployment. |
Each one of Grace’s assumptions (and you may have thought of more) could lead to discussion and debate among stakeholders. Within a Theory of Change process, this discussion, and subsequent refining/redefining, can contribute to a theoretical framework that more accurately reflects the reality of a situation.
If you proceed without working through assumptions you increase the likelihood of encountering unforeseen difficulties along the way. Building on the example above, if Grace had not adequately defined ‘youths’ before promoting the project in the community there could have been confusion about eligibility or an inconsistent approach adopted by partners, potentially risking the success of the project.
Activity 7
Building on the example of maternal mortality, try to identify possible assumptions.
Discussion
Building on the Theory of Change that focused on reducing maternal mortality and identified some assumptions that could lead to discussion and adjustment of the theoretical framework.
What is the problem you are trying to solve? Poor access to, and awareness of, obstetric care, insufficient trained staff and inadequate equipment in healthcare facilities | Who is your key audience? Women of childbearing age Health workers: traditional birth attendants (TBAs), midwives in healthcare facilities | What is your entry point for reaching your key audience? Village health workers District health officers | What steps are needed to bring about change? Training of midwives and TBAs Improved equipment and facilities Raising awareness among women of childbearing age | What is the measurable effect of your work? Increased awareness among women of child bearing age | What are the wider benefits of your work? More women have better- quality, specialist healthcare during childbirth | What is the long-term change you see as your goal? Reduced maternal mortality |
Measurable effect? Improved knowledge and skills of midwives and traditional birth attendants | ||||||
Measurable effect? Improved provision of equipment and facilities. | ||||||
Key assumptions Adequate staff are in post | Key assumptions Everyone agrees on the problems involved TBAs are willing to participate | Key assumptions Identified staff are potential agents of change Village health workers are in post and have time to participate | Key assumptions Resources are adequate to bring about changes TBAs are willing to be part of training | Key assumptions Pregnant women are reachable and receptive | Key assumptions Pregnant women are persuaded of the benefits of delivering in a healthcare facility | Stakeholders |
Summary
This module showed you how to use a Theory of Change to help define the relationship between a development problem and the actions designed to address it.
A Theory of Change should be the result of an effective participatory process, ensuring that stakeholders own the process and the result. This enhances accountability and promotes a greater sense of ownership, and hence increases the likelihood of achieving the desired results.
Self-assessment questions (SAQs)
SAQ 1
A friend of yours has never heard the term ‘Theory of Change’ before. In no more than two sentences, describe to her what the Theory of Change is, what it is used for and why it is important. Type your answer into the text box below.
Discussion
Answer: Did you use any phrases similar to those below?
- It is a tool that helps define the relationship between a development problem and the strategies used to address it.
- It is usually a diagram containing boxes and arrows laid out to show how various elements fit together, and why the proposed strategy should work.
- It is used to explain why particular activities are planned to take place and so justifying the use of resources.
- It connects stakeholders, clarifying a common pathway to a shared goal, promoting understanding of stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership among those involved.
- It includes identification of assumptions, which can help to identify and plan for potential risks.
SAQ 2
Match each of the elements of a Theory of Change below with the element that comes after it:
Using the following two lists, match each numbered item with the correct letter.
The audience
The steps needed to bring about change
The goal
a.The wider benefits
b.The problem
c.The entry point
- 1 = b
- 2 = c
- 3 = a
SAQ 3
a.
True
b.
False
The correct answer is b.
Discussion
False: You want stakeholders to be part of the process and learn together.
a.
True
b.
False
The correct answer is a.
Discussion
True: The process is likely to involve challenging assumptions about the goal and problem, but you cannot assemble relevant stakeholders if you do not have initial ideas about the goal and the problem.
a.
True
b.
False
The correct answer is a.
Discussion
True: This is probably true, although you would not be the first to try.
a.
True
b.
False
The correct answer is a.
Discussion
True: There is unlikely to be unanimous agreement at each step of the way and a majority decision may sometimes be a feasible outcome.
SAQ 4
In the example of maternal mortality, an assumption was made that if women deliver their babies in a healthcare facility they will have a better outcome (i.e. maternal mortality will be reduced). Can you challenge this assumption? Make a few brief notes in the text box below.
Discussion
This may seem a reasonable assumption, but whether delivery in a healthcare facility leads to a better outcome depends on many factors. For example:
- Women may live far from healthcare facilities and the travel may pose a risk to them.
- The healthcare facility may be understaffed or staffed by untrained personnel.
- Equipment in the healthcare facility may be inadequate.
- Traditional birth attendants in village settings may be well trained and a better option for women in some cases.
Although many of these issues are addressed in the Theory of Change, they may raise some questions about the timing of the changes that need to happen. For example, improvements at the healthcare facilities should take place before women are encouraged to attend there to deliver their babies.
End of Module Quiz
Congratulations, you have now reached the end of this module! We hope that you have enjoyed it, and have learned useful skills.
End of Module Quiz
This quiz allows you to work towards your badge for DIY Learn: Theory of Change. To achieve your badge, you must answer six out of eight questions correctly.
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Don’t forget there are another nine modules to choose from which you can find on the DIY Learn home page.
References and acknowledgements
Inspired by: Nesta (2011) Theory of Change.
This Module should be cited as follows:
DIY Learn (2016) Theory of Change, Copyright © The Open University and Nesta
Except for third party materials and otherwise stated below, this content is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/ by-nc-sa/ 4.0/ ). The material acknowledged below is Proprietary and used under licence for this project, and not subject to the Creative Commons Licence. This means that this material may only be used un-adapted within the DIY Learn project and not in any subsequent OER versions.
Grateful acknowledgement is made to the following sources for permission to reproduce the material in this module:
Figure 2: courtesy © Anna Childs