2 Horizon scanning – preparing for the future
The emergence of ChatGPT in 2022 took many by surprise. However, for those who had been closely following advancements in technology and research, the rapid development of rival tools and techniques unfolded in a fairly predictable way. Professionals who actively engaged in horizon scanning – monitoring trends to anticipate and prepare for future developments – were well-positioned to adopt and benefit from these new technologies early on.
As generative AI continues to evolve, horizon scanning remains a crucial practice. It enables us to explore an essential question – what does the future hold for GenAI, and how can we harness these advancements to enhance our work and stay ahead in a rapidly changing landscape?
Horizon scanning is a structured, forward-looking process used to explore potential future developments, trends, and disruptions. Its aim is to help organisations or individuals anticipate change, identify emerging opportunities, and manage potential risks. Horizon scanning enables organisations or individuals to stay ahead of the curve and respond proactively rather than reactively to rapidly changing environments.
Why horizon scanning matters
It supports informed, strategic decision-making.
It helps mitigate risks and capitalise on opportunities.
It promotes long-term thinking in a fast-changing world.
The horizon scanning process
Horizon scanning can be conducted in different ways, but one method is:
Data collection
- Gather information from diverse sources (e.g., industry reports, academic research, news, and expert opinion) to build a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape.
Analysis
- Examine and interpret the data to identify signals, trends, and emerging patterns that could influence the future.
Scenario development
- Develop a range of plausible future scenarios based on the insights gathered. These can help visualise how different factors might interact and evolve.
Risk assessment
- Evaluate the potential impacts – both positive and negative – of each scenario, identifying associated risks and opportunities.
Strategic planning and decision-making
- Use the findings to inform strategic priorities, guide resource allocation, shape actions and decisions that strengthen the organisations or individuals' preparedness and resilience.
In the next section, we explore different types of resources that can help you gather information to get a better understanding of the current landscape of GenAI.
1 Introduction
