5.3  Estimating vaccine needs on the basis of previous consumption

This method is based on the consumption of vaccines during the previous reporting period (usually the previous year). Some adjustment may be necessary if you believe that there has been any increase in the population size since the previous vaccine consumption was recorded. This method is useful for a Health Post where the stock management is good, but there is insufficient information on immunization objectives and targets for the next action plan. It is also useful when placing short-term orders.

In a kebele where stock management is efficient, there is likely to be good information on previous vaccine consumption. For example, you can probably see from the red bars in Figure 5.4 that 97 babies were immunized at birth with BCG in this kebele in 2001 (Ethiopian calendar). So this number could be used to predict the BCG vaccine requirement in the following year.

Figure 5.4  EPI coverage for infants aged under one year during a five year period at Fura kebele, SNNPR, Ethiopia; years are in the Ethiopian calendar (E.C.). (Photo: Janet Haresnape)

5.2.6  Calculating annual vaccine needs from the size of the target population

5.3.1  Calculating annual vaccine needs from previous consumption