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...data point to be confident of his forecast. For example, the Barclays Equity Gilt Study goes back to 1900, which is only 11 or so decades ago. In addition, economic conditions may have changed so that, even with a long historic time series, forecasts of future returns, volatilities and correlations may not be appropriate. Seismic events such as 2008 and 2016 have woken...

...analysis. To introduce the two broad approaches for contrast: Reductionist approaches: these reduce or break down issues into smaller chunks. In the process much of the real-world complexity of an issue can be lost. The benefit of this approach is that you can focus on a small scale, look at individual problems which are well-defined and (often) easier to deal with in...

...analysis for inconsistencies, inaccuracies and irrelevancies. This critique may be contained in a report, or a live confrontation session may be set up between proposer and critic, with key decision makers as observers. In the light of this, the decision makers can then accept, modify, or re-develop the proposal. Dialectical inquiry 1. Form proposal and counter-proposal...