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COVID-19: Immunology, vaccines and epidemiology
COVID-19: Immunology, vaccines and epidemiology

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1.2 Calculating disease incidence

In this section we will ask you to do some simple calculations of weekly disease incidence, which is made using the formula:

incidence equals number of cases divided by total left parenthesis number of population x number of weeks right parenthesis

Here is a worked example:

In an office with 140 employees, during February 2019 (4 weeks), 17 contracted influenza. What is the weekly incidence of influenza in this office?

Incidence = 17/ (140 x 4) = 0.0304 cases per employee per week.

Activity 2 Calculating disease incidence

Timing: Allow 10 minutes

In a secondary school, during the Winter term lasting from January – March 2021 (13 weeks) a number of students were recorded as absent due to COVID-19 infection. The data was broken down according to individual year groups (Table 1). Calculate the weekly incidence of infection in each year group. Don’t forget the units.

Table 1 Individual year groups
Year group Number of students Number of cases
9 196 16
10 229 42
11 168 34
12 154 24

Which year group shows the highest incidence of COVID-19 infection?

Answer

Did you see that year 11 has the highest incidence (0.0156 cases per student per week), even though the total number of cases was higher in year 10.