The Good Friday Agreement and the future of the union

Allegedly it was Prof Paul Bew (now Lord Bew) who famously said in summing up the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, “Unionists were too stupid to realise they had won, and Republicans were too clever to admit they had lost!” To me this totally sums up the last 25 years post the Agreement. Having been involved on the periphery of the discussions, and heavily involved in the implementation stages, including campaigning for the “Yes” vote I still believe that the Agreement, with all its faults and ambiguities was a seminal moment in Irish history and fundamentally a massive victory, for democracy, peace, non-violence and Unionism.

There will be many who disagree, prisoner releases, the reform of the RUC, terrorists in Government and crucially the warped form of Government we have, means that many dismiss what was achieved and consider it a betrayal. However, ultimately, after 25 years of virtual civil war, in which nearly 3500 people died, often in the most horrendous circumstances, the solution we came to, the solution that was endorsed by the people of Ireland on both sides of the border, was the solution broadly arrived at in the Government of Ireland Act 1920.

Fundamentally, the six north eastern Counties of Ireland, remain part of the United Kingdom as they had for the previous 77 years. The campaign of the IRA to force constitutional change in the status of Northern Ireland had failed. The justification republicans often stated was that ‘the people of Ireland had never consented to partition’. The referendum of 22 May 1998 changed this. The people of Ireland both North and South had voted for an agreement which recognised and re-legitimised the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. There is no doubt that the agreement also set out the legitimacy of seeking constitutional change and the pathway for doing so, but the “Principle of Consent” so key to Unionism and democracy, was now accepted by all.

This was the fundamental victory of the Agreement in 1998, it removed any and all supposed justification of violence for political ends. However, the agreement went further, A new system of governance was created, with the use of D’Hondt, petition of concerns, power-sharing and mandatory coalitions, Northern Ireland post 1998 returned to a devolved system if Government with an Assembly as opposed to a Parliament, a First Minister/Deputy First Minister as opposed to a Prime Minister and MLAs as opposed to MPs. The powers of the institutions were broadly modelled on the powers of the Old Stormont (1921-72) and has greater devolved powers in many areas, when compared with the Scottish or Welsh Governments created at the same time.

Yet, in a place where the optics matters, much of that success was undermined by visuals. There is no doubt the images of the release of prisoners hurt many. The fact that of the 340 prisoners in jail n 1998 only 70+ would still have been in jail 2 years later under pre 1998 arrangements didn’t matter. The fact that the RUC was not disbanded, it had its operational name changed, and the official name of the police in Northern Ireland retains the Royal Ulster Constabulary in its title, did little to reduce the hurt to those who bravely stood between the citizens of Northern Ireland and those illegitimately using violence. Sadly, much of the visible pain was delivered without any transparent response by others. The slow torturous process of decommissioning and the total lack of transparent disbandment of terrorist organisations, with certain structures and organisations remaining, has damaged support for what was achieved in 1998.

In 1998 many people and many communities stretched themselves to create the circumstances for a better Northern Ireland. In 1998 in Oslo, David Trimble in his Nobel Peace Prize recipient speech, acknowledged that the Northern Ireland ‘house’ that had been built since 1921 was strong but was not a warm place for all. His speech and his vision (a word he rarely used and personally disliked) was that post 1998 Northern Ireland would grow as a community ‘at peace with itself and with its neighbours.” David Trimble longed for a pluralist Northern Ireland, one in which all could live, thrive and participate on equal terms.

So, the question is how well have we done? Is Northern Ireland a better, fairer place? Have we fully rejected the armalite replacing it with the ballot box? Is the new generation, those that have been born and grown up post 1998, more at peace with each other and this place?

For me the greatest tragedy of 1998 is that we remain a society with many unhealed wounds. Yes political violence is virtually non-existent. Yes, our society is more pluralist, more inclusive and fairer. Yes, there are many benefits of the Union, for example the power of the NHS and the strength of the Westminster Exchequer that were so evident during the Pandemic but we are still a society ill at ease with our past. The narrative around what happened prior to 1998 is being exploited and abused. The battle lines are now drawn trying to justify the past. Too many of our young people and older people (who should know better) seem wedded to the glorification of the unjustifiable. There was always an alternative to violence, the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement proved that. To say anything else is to deny what was achieved in 1998. 

However, without doubt, we have left the victims behind. We have failed them. The legacy of violence and cross generation trauma is very much with us and for many truth and justice has been denied.

Added to this, Brexit has destabilised much of what was achieved, with the vested interests in London and Brussels using Northern Ireland as a political pawn in a wider game.

But as a Unionist am I more confident or less confident than I was in 1998? Today I remain as convinced as ever the case for the Union remains strong; economically, culturally, socially and democratically. For all the hype around movements such as “Ireland’s Future” it is clear the dialogue is operating in an echo chamber, the outreach to unionism is minimal, the arguments for constitutional change are weak and often solely romantic. Even with the demographic changes of recent years, no poll suggests that constitutional change is realistic any time soon. 

Therefore, Northern Ireland still needs to work on being a modern, mature society, outward looking, willing to grow, and willing to grasp the economic opportunities open to it. 

Interestingly even the alleged benefits of the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework allegedly giving access to both the UK and EU markets, makes a strong economic case for Northern Ireland a place of business and investment, as long as the status of Northern Ireland, with in the Union, doesn’t change.

So, was 1998 worth it? In 1998 I was a cautious Yes voter and I remain so. In my opinion is the Union weaker or stronger? Ironically I believe that actually the Union is not any weaker nor any stronger, it is different but the reasons for and the support of the Union remain strong. Finally, is Northern Ireland a better place in 2023 than it was in 1998? Absolutely for that reason we have something to celebrate.