6 The role of the Bank of England

To understand what determines the level of interest rates charged when you borrow money, you first need to understand how ‘official’ interest rates are set. In the video Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, talks about the factors that are taken into account when official interest rates are set. The setting of interest rates is a key facet of monetary policy – and this is used to help manage the economy.

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MARTIN UPTON

Well we're here at the Bank of England and Andy Haldane is the Bank of England's Chief Economist. Good morning Andy.

ANDY HALDANE

Good morning.

MARTIN UPTON

Several questions I want to ask but the first one is about monetary policy. In 1997 the government handed the Bank of England responsibility for monetary policy. Is it better for the Bank to run monetary policy rather than the government?

ANDY HALDANE

Yes - I think it's better for the economy. I think it's better for society. I think it's better for the government as well actually for something like monetary policy to be put into the hands of the Central Bank.

Now why do I say that? Well what we found in the past in the UK and what many other countries have found historically is that leaving monetary policy, interest rates, in the hands of politicians leaves it rather at the whim of elections. So the pattern we sometimes saw in the UK and elsewhere was for example monetary policy being loosened, interest rates being lowered, in the run up to elections; which might not have suited the needs of the economy. It might have generated bouts of inflation; the sort of thing we saw during the 1970s and parts of the 1980s. So emerging best practice internationally over that period was to delegate responsibility for the setting of interest rates to a central bank, arms-length from elections, from the political process, and that way there's less chance of stoking up inflation pressures ahead of elections.

And as best we can tell, on the basis of experience, both in the UK and internationally, those countries that have handed monetary policy to the Central Bank have better been able to keep inflation under control. In the UK since 1987 when the Bank was given operational independence interest rate setting, inflation has averaged the target of around two per cent. So I think that's been a good outcome for the economy, for society and ultimately it's good for the government as well.

MARTIN UPTON

You mentioned the target for inflation of two per cent and how the MPC, the Monetary Policy Committee, when setting interest rates, had its eye on that. And I think now you also look at something called 'excess capacity' within the economy as well and how that might impact on inflation.

Well - what about the poor old savers? I mean do you think about them when you're setting interest rates because, after all, a lot of people with savings, particularly in later life, rely on interest for income?

ANDY HALDANE

Yes - absolutely we do. So when setting monetary policy, interest rates, you're right. We have an inflation target of two per cent to hit but that's not the only thing we have a weather eye on. We also have objectives to support the economy and to support the government's objectives for employment and growth.

So all of the time we are looking at not just at price pressures in the economy but levels of employment and levels of activity and how our interest rate decisions are affecting both borrowers and savers.

Now of course we can't keep everyone happy with one interest rate. If you're setting the interest rate low you're benefiting borrowers somewhat to the expense of savers and vice versa when interest rates are high. What we have to do is balance those interests and ask ourselves what is best for the economy as a whole and that's what we do.

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Before 1997, ‘official’ interest rates in the UK were decided by the UK government, usually after consultation with the Bank of England. Arrangements changed in May 1997 when the incoming Labour government passed responsibility for monetary policy and the setting of interest rates to the Bank of England to make the bank independent of political influence. This matches the arrangement in the USA and in the ‘euro zone’, where the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank respectively set official rates.

The rate set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), also known as the ‘Bank Rate’, is the rate at which the Bank of England will lend to the financial institutions. This, in turn, determines the level of bank ‘base rates’ – the minimum level at which the banks will normally lend money. The result is that the Bank Rate (also known as the ‘official rate’) effectively sets the general level of interest rates for the economy as a whole.

The Bank of England’s MPC meets eight times a year to consider policy in the light of economic conditions – in particular the prospects for price inflation (the rate of increase in the price of consumer products like groceries, clothing, household goods and fuel). The MPC’s decision is normally announced at 12 noon on the Thursday of the weeks in which it meets.

The prime objective is for the MPC to set interest rates at a level consistent with keeping price inflation at around 2% p.a. For example, if the MPC believes inflation will go above 2% p.a. it might increase interest rates in order to discourage people from taking on debt – because if people spend less, it could reduce the upward pressure on prices. Conversely, if the MPC believes inflation will be much below 2% p.a. it might lower interest rates (also known as ‘easing monetary policy’), and people might then borrow and spend more.

However, after 2013 this approach to setting Bank Rate was modified to one where the MPC takes greater account of other measures of economic activity like the level of unemployment. The video explores this change of emphasis.

Official rates of interest tend to move in cycles, rising to peaks and then falling to troughs. Since 1989 the trend in the UK has been for the peaks in interest rates to be successively lower. The official rate of interest (or Bank Rate) set by the Bank of England fell to 3.5% in 2003. In 2009 it hit a then record low of 0.5% and was reduced further to 0.25% in August 2016. In 2020 the Bank Rate was reduced to a new historic low of 0.1% as the UK, like other economies, tried to counter the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. From late 2021, Bank Rate started to rise again as the MPC reacted to an increase in price inflation in the UK. In July 2023 the rate stood at 5%.

Note, though, that for individuals the rate paid on debt products will be ‘at a margin’ – sometimes a very high margin – over Bank Rate and bank base rates. In other words, the rate that is actually paid by individuals will be higher.

One other factor to take into account is the difference between price inflation and interest rates – the difference is referred to as the ‘real’ interest rate. When interest rates are higher than price inflation then real interest rates are positive. This is good news for savers who will see the purchasing power of their savings rising. When price inflation exceeds interest rates then real interest rates are negative. This is bad news for savers who will see the purchasing power of their savings falling.

For anyone who is borrowing the reverse applies – positive real interest rates are bad news but negative real interest rates are good news.