5 Understanding the history of Sudan’s oil governance
The comings and goings of various oil companies, set against global geopolitical pressures and Sudan’s domestic politics is complex and not a little confusing. In the following activity, you will be looking at the evolution of events to gain a better appreciation of how these complex dynamics are interconnected.
Activity 3 Mapping domestic and international dynamics of Sudan’s oil governance
Below is a timeline of some of the key events over the years since Sudan gained independence in 1956, particularly as they relate to oil production. Arguably Sudan’s North-South divide, a situation that precipitated the secession of South Sudan, has its roots further back in the colonial period but for the sake of the oil story you will start with independence.
Timeline: China and Sudan oil [Tip: hold Ctrl and click a link to open it in a new tab. (Hide tip)]
As you read through the timeline try to categorise factors according to whether they are ‘internal’ and relate to Sudan’s domestic politics, or are ‘external’ and are more rooted in international factors. Record your analysis in the save-able table below. When you have finished, use your findings to assess whether you think internal and external factors are equally important or whether one set of factors has been more determining of events. Is it easy to separate out ‘internal’ and ‘external’ factors? One example of each is given to help you get started.
Internal | External |
---|---|
Failed coup in 1971 | British leave Sudan in 1956 |
Discussion
You may have come up with the following.
Internal | External |
---|---|
Failed coup in 1971 | British leave Sudan in 1956 |
Late 1980s: turnover of Presidency | China begins diplomatic relations with Sudan: arms deals signed 1988 |
Mid-1990s: oil production steps up | Chevron resumes activities |
2004: clampdown in Darfur | PSAs signed 1988 |
2006: Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed, supposedly ending the Sudanese civil war, but fighting continues | US government labels Sudan as sponsor of terrorism |
2011: South Sudan secedes | Mid-1990s: China signs oil deals |
2013: civil war in South Sudan | Negotiations by Sudan with other external players |
2018: peace treat signed | US government and UN sanctions Sudan |
CNPC outbids other oil companies | |
GNPOC formed by consortium of IOCs and NOCs | |
Dam deals signed with China | |
1999: oil exported in 1999 from Sudanese refinery | |
2004-5: UN passes resolutions on Darfur | |
2007: China tries to pressure Sudan and appoints special representative to help China negotiate over Darfur | |
China sends peace keepers to South Sudan | |
2017: sanctions end |
In this attempt at the activity there are more factors in the ‘external’ column than the ‘internal’ one. This does not mean that internal factors are less important because different factors are, in reality, weighted differently. For example, the secession of South Sudan was listed as one internal factor but is clearly of historic importance. Also, it is hard to straightforwardly categorise certain particular events as ‘internal’ or ‘external’ since they are a blend of both. For instance, signing of a deal between the Sudanese government and an international oil company is a mixture of internal and external factors and relates to inward investment and trade which straddles the border. But the exercise shows that important internal and external factors were both in play in the complex unfolding of Sudan’s oil politics.