4 Climate talks

The threat of global climate change has spurred urgent international action. Starting in 1995 the United Nations has convened a series of annual Climate Change conferences, each normally now called a ‘Conference of the Parties’ (COP). The 1997 meeting in Kyoto in Japan agreed the Kyoto Protocol. Under this many industrialized countries agreed to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of an average of 6% to 8% below 1990 levels to be reached between the years 2008–2012. Many countries have managed to exceed these targets. Indeed, by 2023, the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions had more than halved from their 1990 level (DESNZ, 2024).

In 2008 the UK Parliament passed a Climate Change Act which required that the country’s greenhouse gas emissions should continue to fall, by 80% of their 1990 levels by 2050. This Act was amended in 2019 to make the emissions level ‘net zero’ by 2050 (the meaning of this term will be described later in this course).

The 21st COP meeting (COP 21) was held in Paris in 2015. This set an important policy milestone. A total of 195 countries committed to curbing their greenhouse gas emissions ‘consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’ (UNFCCC, 2016). A 1.5 °C target would mean limiting the rise in atmospheric concentration of CO₂ to below 440 ppm. In order to achieve this, global CO₂ emissions from human activities would need to peak immediately and fall to net zero by 2050.

A key part of the policy process lies in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), a set of short-term policy promises or pledges on emissions cuts from individual countries, initially only extending to 2025 or 2030, but which can then reviewed and increased over time. In addition, many countries (including the UK) have committed to a longer term target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.

The COP series of meetings have continued each year (except in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). It has become clear since 2015 that the climate situation is more urgent than previously realised. As shown in Figure 10 the average global surface temperature has been rising steadily since the 1970s and could reach 1.5 °C before 2030. The COP 28 meeting held in Dubai in November 2023 (Figure 11) affirmed the need for policies to keep the global temperature rise to only 1.5 °C rather than just ‘well below 2 °C’ as agreed at the 2015 COP 21 meeting.

Figure 11 A line-up of world leaders at the UN COP 28 meeting in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates in 2023.

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This is a photograph of all the Heads of State attending the COP28 conference in Dubai. There are four rows of people, mostly men but a few women, standing in front of a UN and COP28 UAE banner. Arab leaders are wearing traditional clothing. Flags from the different countries participating in COP28 provide a colourful backdrop.

Figure 11 A line-up of world leaders at the UN COP 28 meeting in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates in 2023.

The COP 28 meeting agreed that there should be a ‘transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems’ and that there should be a tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030.’ The needs and implications of this energy transition are the subject of the rest of this course.

A key role in analysing climate change and providing scientific information to inform policy decisions is carried out by the IPCC.