6.1 Systems thinking tools
The OpenLearn Systems Thinking Hub [Tip: hold Ctrl and click a link to open it in a new tab. (Hide tip)] (The Open University, n.d.) provides access to range of tools and courses which may be of interest to those who wish to develop their understanding further by starting with Systems thinking and practice – OpenLearn (The Open Univeristy, 2021). For the purposes of this course, we focus on three approaches, that you may wish to use to help develop options further.
Causal loop diagrams
A causal loop diagram consists of four basic elements:
- the variables
- the links between them
- the signs on the links
- the sign of the loop.
The following video will walk you through how to create a causal loop diagram.
Download this video clip.Video player: Video 21
Transcript: Video 21 Casual loop diagrams
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Causal loop diagrams are very closely associated with multiple cause diagrams. Both are used to explore and portray the web of interconnected causes and effects in a system of interest, and many of the steps in developing them are similar. Just like a multiple cause diagram, the first stage can be to write down some of the key factors within the system of interest and to indicate the major connections between them with arrows, where a change in one causes a change in the other.
Although signs could be added onto the arrows in the diagram at this stage, it may be more helpful to think through the logic of the causal relationship between these factors. This can then be expressed by adding in words that indicate the effects of more or less of some of those factors on other factors. For example, less pests can lead to more crop plants.
As causal loop diagrams can be the basis of system dynamic models, it's helpful to think of all the factors as variables in a model and to discard factors where variation may not be important. Of course, doing this can make the diagram very complicated and you may need to produce revised versions to clarify your thinking.
For instance, I've taken out arable land as an intermediate factor between crop and human populations and reverted to not including any words to indicate the nature of the causal relationship. With experience, you won't need to go through this stage. Instead, just think about the key factors and connections and the nature and direction of the causality by using signs.
In causal loop diagrams, either the factors or the arrows might be labelled to indicate that an increase or decrease in the factor at the tail of an arrow helps to increase or decrease the factor at its head. This is a major point of difference from multiple cause diagrams. In a causal loop diagram, these arrows are normally labelled with an S rather than a word like increases, or an O rather than words like decreases or prevents.
The S means that a change in one factor causes a change in the same direction in the other factor. The O means that the change in one factor causes a change in the opposite direction in the other factor. However, you may come across examples where the S and the O are replaced by a plus or positive, and minus or negative sign to mean the equivalent causal relationship.
Where the labels on a loop are all the same, the loop will be reinforcing and is labelled with an R. Where the labels are different, the loop will be balancing and is labelled with a B. Here, some simple loops are shown-- one reinforcing and three balancing. The reinforcing loop shows that increases in the human population cause increases in the area of crops grown. The increased food production can then support an even larger population.
The three balancing loops showed that an increase in one variable leads to an increase in the other, which in turn causes a decrease in the first variable. This, in turn, leads to a decrease in the second variable, which ultimately causes an increase in the first variable.
It's important to remember that some loops can have several steps or can take time to take effect. This particular balancing loop has four variables where the influence of one variable on the next may only be noticeable over months or years-- so I've put double line breaks on two of them.
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Video 21 Casual loop diagrams
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Multiple cause diagrams
If you need to explore the causal dynamics of a situation then you need a multiple cause diagram. This will show you an overview of a number of relevant causal factors and how these relate to one another in terms of what causes what else to happen. The following video will walk you through how to create a multiple cause diagram.
Download this video clip.Video player: Video 22
Transcript: Video 22 Multiple cause diagram
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When drawing a multiple cause diagram, you often start with one event or state you want to explain. Perhaps because it's something you want to achieve, or maybe something you want to avoid.
You ask yourself a question, what causes this? These may be the causes that first come to mind, but before moving on, it's often helpful to ask what else causes this.
Next, you ask what causes each of these, and again, what else causes each of these. And for each of these factors, you can ask the same questions again, and so on.
In practice, it's not usually as straightforward as this, and there are two or three further questions you have to ask. Firstly, for each link you need to ask, is this a direct link or are there any intermediate factors it might be helpful to identify?
This is important because each of these intermediate factors may itself have multiple causes, and one of these may provide the most promising way to intervene in this situation.
Here's an example. Drought can cause famine but opening out the chain of causal factors between the two can help you to see where action might be taken. Secondly, you need to look for causal connections between the factors you've identified. These interconnections can be the most important ones to identify because some of them may form feedback loops where the arrows follow each other around a closed loop.
Feedback loops play an important role in governing the behaviour of the system as a whole, so they can help you identify the points where intervention might be most effective.
If you're working on paper, you're likely to go through quite a few sheets. Some people find it helpful to use Post-it notes so that they can move them around the page.
An alternative way to draw a multiple cause diagram might be to start with an event you want to explore the possible consequences of and to proceed in a similar way, asking what might be the effect of this. What other effects might there be, and what might be the effects of these?
This sort of approach could be useful for exploring the likely consequences, both intended and unintended, of initiatives you might take in an existing situation. In this case, you'd be likely to have already analysed the situation using the first approach, so you'd be more likely to be adding to an existing diagram than starting one from scratch.
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Video 22 Multiple cause diagram
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Influence diagram
It can be useful to start with a systems map and then adapt it to serve as an influence diagram, as this diagram uses arrows to depict the influences between subsystems. The following video will walk you through how to create an influence diagram.
Download this video clip.Video player: Video 23
Transcript: Video 23 Influence maps
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Drawing an influence diagram can help you think about situations where many different bodies, groups, and individuals influence each other in various ways, and where perhaps you would like to influence the situation yourself. Blobs represent the entities which influence each other and can be almost anything. For example, blobs can represent individuals or a role and groups of people, like teams, departments, or organisations. They can represent a process, equipment, hardware, almost anything. Arrows represent the flows of influence between them.
As with rich pictures, drawing an influence diagram involves a process of discrimination. If you include every influence you can think of, you'll end up with a tangled network of interconnected nodes. The diagram only becomes useful when you identify the influences which are most significant in relation to your particular interest in the situation.
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Video 23 Influence maps
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Now you’ve had chance to explore systems thinking tools, the following activity asks you to try one of them out.
Activity 23 Try out the tools
Timing: 15 minutes
Use one of the three approaches to explore some of the challenges of moving to a hybrid model you are thinking about.
- What is the culture of your organisation? Blame or accountability, assimilative or inclusive, risk adverse or experimental, etc.
- What are the conditions, the opportunities, and constraints of your project? Budget, costs, staffing, locations, legislation and so on?
- Who and what are collaborating to create what is done, and what are the interconnections that facilitate this happening?
- Are those interconnections tightly coupled or looser?
Reflecting on your sense making:
- Did you discover anything new about the situation?
- Did you see any different perspectives of the situation as you worked through the situation?
- Did you identify any loops in your diagrams? And what do you think they depict?
- Did you find more uncertainty that you need to make sense of?
The introduction to systems thinking and approaches we have explored in this section may help you develop your options with better clarity and engage stakeholders.