4.1 Carbon reduction targets

The first international agreement to set carbon reduction targets was the 1997 United Nations Kyoto Protocol. This came into force in 2005 and required developed countries to reduce their human-generated GHG emissions by an average of just over 5% on 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The developing countries that signed up, including India and China, were not required to meet any reduction targets, the USA never ratified the treaty, and Canada and Russia withdrew in 2011 before the second reduction period (from 2012 to 2020) began. The Kyoto Protocol was an important, if modest, first step and known to be inadequate to meet the challenges of climate change.

A series of UN climate change conferences (COPs) since Kyoto came into force have attempted to get international agreements on reducing GHG emissions to limit the rise in average global temperatures. The UN climate conference (COP21) was held in Paris in December 2015. It agreed on the need for drastic cuts in total GHG emissions to limit global temperature rise to 2 °C, and preferably to 1.5 °C, above pre-industrial levels. It was signed by most of the world’s countries in April 2016. At subsequent COPs it was agreed that limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C is needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change. However, in 2023 the World Meteorlogical Organization (WMO, 2023) predicted that a 1.5 °C rise was likely to be reached, at least temporarily, between 2023 and 2027. In fact, 2023 was the hottest year on record (WMO, 2024) but this record was surpassed one year later in 2024 with an annual average temperature increase of about 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels (WMO, 2025) – a symbolic warning to the world. To limit a long-term rise in the mean global temperature to 1.5 °C, a globally equitable carbon footprint – based on UN estimates – is calculated to be about 2.5 tonnes CO2 equivalent for every person on the planet, reducing to net zero by the end of the century.

The UK Government exceeded its Kyoto targets and in 2008 passed a pioneering Climate Change Act. Under this Act, the Climate Change Committee was set up to advise the government on carbon budgets, a limit on the GHG emissions in a given time period, and associated emission reduction targets, which are legally binding. After the Paris agreement (COP 21), and leading up to the COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow in 2021, the UK’s targets for meeting its Sixth Carbon Budget and its national contribution to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C were strengthened. The current UK targets are a 68% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 and a 78% reduction by 2035, with a reduction to net zero by 2050 compared to the 1990 level.

‘Net zero by 2050’ doesn’t mean zero carbon (i.e. no emissions); rather, it means that any emissions remaining in 2050 from UK production and consumption plus a share of international aviation and shipping would be balanced by removal of an equivalent amount of GHGs from the atmosphere, for example by planting trees or developing and using emerging technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

By 2024, UK emissions were 50.4% below the 1990 level (CCC, 2025). Although this represents a welcome, as well as considerable fall in emissions, there is still some way to go to meet the targets and the pace of change will need to increase. It is also arguable that now the required emissions reductions are largely in sectors where this is harder to achieve, such as agriculture and aviation.

It is important to understand that, in line with the UN’s Climate Convention, these targets are based on territorial GHG emissions and so don’t include the UK’s carbon footprint associated with imports.

What might these targets mean for your individual carbon footprint?